Macroeconomics Department Publications

Low Base Interest Rates: An Opportunity in the Euro Debt Crisis

Member states of the euro area have been struggling with the legacies of the severe financial and economic crisis for four years now. But debt ratios are still rising. Negative primary balances, low growth, and low inflation do not allow for a recovery similar to the one in the US after the Second World War. Between 1946 and 1953, the US was able to almost halve its debt with no haircuts. The crisis ...

China's New Course: Strengthening Private Consumption: Five Questions to Christian Dreger

Prospects for Consumption-Based Growth in China

The Chinese model for economic growth is undergoing a fundamental reorientation. While output has been driven by investments and exports in recent decades, private consumption is expected to become a major trigger for future GDP growth. However, the conditions for higher demand from households are far from optimal: the savings rate is high, driven in particular by the low level of social security and ...

Settling TARGET Balances after the Euro Crisis: Seven Questions to Claudia Lambert and Philipp König

TARGET Balances - An Anchor of Stability

The debate about TARGET2, the payment system of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), has resulted in controversial discussions in Germany in recent years. The present study by DIW Berlin concludes that fears often expressed in this context of the risks to Germany are largely unfounded. Germany is - in contrast to what is often claimed - one the beneficiaries of the Target system. In particular, ...

Germany's Big Weakness is a Lack of Investment: Seven Questions to Marcel Fratzscher

More Growth through Higher Investment

While many countries in the euro area are deep in recession due to a debt and structural crisis, the German economy appears to have excelled compared to many other euro area countries. Unemployment has fallen to the lowest level since German reunification, economic output has grown by over eight percent since 2009, and public budgets have been consolidated, generating a surplus in 2012. But this is ...

Germany Must Invest More in Its Future

Shortly before the parliamentary election in 2013, Germany is riding on a wave of euphoria: hardly any other euro country has weathered the financial and debt crisis so well. Since 2009, GDP has grown by over eight percent and 1.2 million new jobs have been created. Public finances were consolidated and, in 2012, there was a fiscal surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP. An impressive financial position indeed ...

Real Estate Booms and Price Bubbles: What Can Germany Learn from Other Countries?

When speculative price bubbles on real estate markets burst, the effects for the real economy are often devastating taking the form of substantial losses in production and employment. This paper discusses the degree to which institutional frameworks can prevent speculative bubbles from emerging and expanding. Comparing experiences in different countries indicates that, in Germany, institutional regulations ...

Separated Banking System Not Enough: Seven Questions to Dorothea Schäfer