Macroeconomics Department Research Projects

Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Policies in Europe

Political measures at the level of the European Union are intended, among other things, to ensure the stability of the economic and monetary union. This includes, for example, the establishment of the European Recovery Fund, which can be a first step towards a fiscal union in the Eurozone. The project examines how these, and other economic policy measures affect inequality between households. The...

EU Tax Observatory

The EU Tax Observatory is an independent research laboratory hosted at the Paris School of Economics and DIW is the national cooperation partner.  It conducts innovative research on taxation, contributes to a democratic and inclusive debate on the future of taxation, and fosters a dialogue between the scientific community, civil society, and policymakers in the European Union and worldwide.

Inclusive, Affordable and Sustainable Housing for Marginalized Communities (HouseInc)

The objective of HouseInc is to analyse interlinked dimensions of housing inequalities in the context of marginalized communities. HouseInc will empirically examine economic, social, and ecological drivers and assess impacts of various indicators on housing inequality to derive policy recommendations that foster the adoption of effective measures addressing housing inequality across Europe....

The effect of the low nominal interest rate environment on household investment behavior

The objective of the project is to analyze the effects of long enduring low interest rates on household investment behavior, setting a special focus on the stock market participation of German and US households. In particular, we address four questions within the project. Did the low interest rate environment induced more households to enter the stock market? How does a low interest rate...

The impact of housing and land-use regulations on the formation of speculative house price bubbles: international evidence

This project raises the question of how rental housing market and land-use regulations affect the build-up of the speculative house price bubbles that often lead to financial system instability and deep recessions. The study focuses on the OECD countries. Specifically, the project examines the impact of the rent control, protection of tenants from eviction, housing rationing, and land-use...

The Provision of External Expertise in the Field of Monetary and Financial Affairs (Monetary Expert Panel)

Expert Studies on Fundamental Issues of Public Finance, Taxation, and Economic Policy

After being commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Finance, researchers at DIW Berlin and the ifo Institute prepare short-term expert reports and analyses on national, European and international financial, tax and fiscal policy issues.

Expert Studies on Fundamental Issues of Public Finance, Taxation, and Economic Policy

After being commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Finance, researchers at DIW Berlin and the ifo Institute prepare short-term expert reports and analyses on national, European and international financial, tax and fiscal policy issues.

Bank lending under BASEL III: The contribution of unconventional monetary policy

The project examines the extent to which bank lending has changed since the financial crisis and which factors play a role. One focus of the analysis is the impact of unconventional monetary policy on lending behavior and profitability in the banking sector.

Banking Sector Diversity: Does it matter for sector stability and SME financing?

The question of what banking sector diversity actually means and what it impliesfor the funding of small and medium sized firms (SMEs) and for banking sectorstability is still open, and this is particularly relevant since the financial crisis hashit the European countries. In fact, the crisis raised doubts if previous researchthat finds comparative advantages for more concentrated banking sectors...

Big Data in Macroeconomic Analysis: Texts as data source for the economic analysis - Potentials and possible applications

The aim of this project is to use innovative approaches and heterogeneous data sources to advance research on forecasting economic development, predicting turning points and determining economic cycles. The first work package provides a comprehensive overview in the field of automated text analysis, the use of media data in the economic forecast and the methods of forecast evaluation, as well as...

Early warning systems for sovereign and banking crises

The aim of the project is to develop early warning systems for banking and sovereign debt crises. On the one hand, the project uses Bayesian model averaging methods. One the other hand, it draws on dynamic factor models.

European capital markets and macroeconomic stability: The role of equity and debt

European regulators and policy makers face the challenge to create stable and resilient capital market structures. After initiating the Banking Union, the goal is to also achieve deeper and better integrated capital markets in the realm of a European Capital Markets Union. Using both macroeconomic and more granular data, in this project we will analyze barriers to capital market integration,...

Framework Contract for Workshops on Current Issues of Economic and Financial Policy

Conceptual and technical preparation and execution of workshops on current topics in close coordination with thematically responsible staff of the BMF (up to 6 workshops per year)

Great Expectations? Germany's Recovery from the Great Depression, 1932-1936

The overarching objective of the project is to describe and analyse the evolution of expectations about key macroeconomic variables in Germany between 1932 and 1934 and use these insights to evaluate their significance for the German recovery from the Great Depression in a structural macroeconomic model. We aim to assemble qualitative and quantitative evidence about the evolution of expectations...

Interactions between bank-specific risk and macroeconomic performance

The global financial crisis has demonstrated that risk at the level of individual financial institutions can harm the stability of the financial system as a whole and, in turn, macroeconomic performance. Building on the concept of granularity, this project investigates how risk at the level of large banks and macroeconomic performance are related. Moreover, it will be explored how regulatory...

Macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices – state dependence and implications for the conduct of monetary policy

Noticing the adoption of unconventional measures of monetary policy in major currency areas on the one hand and continuing globalisation and integration of international financial markets on the other hand, we analyse the linkages between monetary policy and asset prices. Apart from excess asset valuation, we consider second order dynamics (uncertainties, tail risks) as specific threats to...

Short-term economic effects of a 'Brexit' on the German economy

The scientific report summarizes the state of the literature on the subject of short-term Brexit consequences and carries out quantitative simulations of the economic effects of a hard Brexit on the German economy using suitable macro-econometric methods.

Support Vector Machines

The effect of the low interest environment on household investment behavior

The objective of the project is to analyze the effects of long enduring low interest rates on household investment behavior, setting a special focus on the stock market participation of German and US households. In particular, we address four questions within the project. Did the low interest rate environment induced more households to enter the stock market? How do low interest rates affect the...