The aim of this project is to estimate the impact of monetary policy on structural reforms in the euro area. We first identify exogenous ECB policy changes through an event study that extracts the unexpected variation in euro area interest rates on policy announcement days. We estimate then the effect of monetary policy shocks on the number of reforms and investigate whether the effect is stronger...
The scientific report summarizes the state of the literature on the subject of short-term Brexit consequences and carries out quantitative simulations of the economic effects of a hard Brexit on the German economy using suitable macro-econometric methods.
Completed Project| Forecasting and Economic Policy, Macroeconomics
The aim of the project is to develop early warning systems for banking and sovereign debt crises. On the one hand, the project uses Bayesian model averaging methods. One the other hand, it draws on dynamic factor models.
The overarching objective of the project is to describe and analyse the evolution of expectations about key macroeconomic variables in Germany between 1932 and 1934 and use these insights to evaluate their significance for the German recovery from the Great Depression in a structural macroeconomic model. We aim to assemble qualitative and quantitative evidence about the evolution of expectations...
The project examines the extent to which bank lending has changed since the financial crisis and which factors play a role. One focus of the analysis is the impact of unconventional monetary policy on lending behavior and profitability in the banking sector.
The global financial crisis has demonstrated that risk at the level of individual financial institutions can harm the stability of the financial system as a whole and, in turn, macroeconomic performance. Building on the concept of granularity, this project investigates how risk at the level of large banks and macroeconomic performance are related. Moreover, it will be explored how regulatory...