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Despite Crises, the Stability of the Euro Is Rooted in the Middle Class

In the 24 years since its introduction, the euro has experienced a financial crisis, a government debt crisis, a global pandemic, and an energy crisis—and survived. Using a model focusing on households, this Weekly Report shows that the monetary union’s stability is rooted in the fact that the middle class neither gains nor loses significantly relative to an independent currency following business ...

Digitisation and Renaissance of the Manufacturing Industry in Major Cities: The Case of Berlin

The rise of digitisation will cause a major upheaval in the manufacturing industries, bringing changes to traditional industrial location patterns as well. In order to understand the direction these structural changes are taking, this paper analyses the start-up activity in the industrial sector. The frontrunners are metropolitan regions and in particular major cities such as Berlin or Munich. Furthermore, ...

Chinese Loans to African Countries Differ from Western Development Loans

Over the past 20 years, China has granted a conspicuous amount of loans to African countries. New loan data show that compared to Western multilateral loans, Chinese loans have relatively high interest rates and shorter maturities, tend to be highly collateralized, and are volatile over time. Thus, Western loans are generally more likely to be in the economic interest of the borrowing country. Furthermore, ...

Ukrainian refugees: Nearly half intend to stay in Germany in the longer term

Second survey wave of around 7,000 Ukrainians on their life situations and progress in social participation For the second time, Ukrainians who fled because of the Russian war of aggression were interviewed about their life in Germany. Key results are: At the beginning of 2023, almost half of the respondents intend to stay in Germany in the longer term. The number of people in employment has increased ...

Illustrative Case Examples for the Coordinated Use of Models (Deliverable D5.4)

Estimating the Marginal Costs of Road Renewals: Evidence from a Duration Approach

Within an analytical approach that mirrors the relationship between road deterioration, traffic load, and road renewal, we estimate the marginal costs of road renewals as part of a social marginal cost scheme for road charging. Based on a comprehensive data set for German motor ways, we estimate a Weibull dura tion model with shared frailties that account for unobserved heterogeneity, including covariates ...

SOEP Annual Report 2022 is published!

New data, new projects, new faces: In 2022, a lot of new things happened at the Socio-Economic Panel. Last year's annual report provides again a compact and clear insight into all the SOEP's activities on topics such as forced migration, wealth, new samples, pension data, and mental health as well as on the fieldwork carried out by infas. The report is available online free of charge. We would also ...

SOEP Annual Report 2022 is published!

New data, new projects, new faces: In 2022, a lot of new things happened at the Socio-Economic Panel. Last year's annual report provides again a compact and clear insight into all the SOEP's activities on topics such as forced migration, wealth, new samples, pension data, and mental health as well as on the fieldwork carried out by infas. The report is available online free of charge. We would ...

A HANK2 Model of Monetary Unions

How does a monetary union alter the impact of business cycle shocks at the household level? We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model of two countries (HANK2) and show in closed form that a monetary union shifts the adjustment to a shock horizontally—across countries—within the brackets of the union-wide wealth distribution rather than vertically—that is, across the brackets of the union-wide ...

Putting MARS into Space: Non Linearities and Spatial Effects in Hedonic Models

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) is a simple and powerful non-parametric machine learning algorithm that automatizes the selection of non-linear terms in regression models. In this study, we propose using MARS in a spatial regression framework to account for potential non-linearities and spatial effects in spatial regression models. Using a relatively large data set of 17,000 dwellings ...