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Assessing the Value of Data for Prediction Policies: The Case of Antibiotic Prescribing

We quantify the value of data for the prediction policy problem of reducing antibiotic prescribing to curb antibiotic resistance. Using varying combinations of administrative data, we evaluate machine learning predictions for diagnosing bacterial urinary tract infections and the outcomes of prescription rules based on these predictions. Simple patient demographics improve prediction quality substantially ...

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...

DENeB - 7th PhD Workshop

DENeB brings together researchers in the Berlin area who are working on themes related to Development Economics. The seminar series gives invited guests the opportunity to present their work and receive feedback from members of the network.

Temporal Aggregation of Time Series to Identify Typical Hourly Electricity System States: A Systematic Assessment of Relevant Cluster Algorithms

Comprehensive numerical models are pivotal to analyze the decarbonization of electricity systems. However, increasing system complexity and limited computational resources impose restrictions to model-based analyses. One way to reduce computational burden is to use a minimum, yet representative, set of system states for model simulation. These states characterize fluctuating renewable generation and ...

The Joy of Gratifications: Promotion as a Short-Term Boost or Long-Term Success: The Same for Women and Men?

Job satisfaction helps create a committed workforce with many positive effects, such as increased organisational citizenship behaviour and reduced absenteeism. In turn, job satisfaction can be increased through gratifications, such as wage increases and promotions. But human satisfaction is prone to being governed by the homeostatic principle and will eventually return to the individual's base level. ...

Class Rank and Long-Run Outcomes

This paper considers an unavoidable feature of the school environment, class rank. What are the long-run effects of a student's ordinal rank in elementary school? Using administrative data on all public-school students in Texas, we show that students with a higher third-grade academic rank, conditional on achievement and classroom fixed effects, have higher subsequent test scores, are more likely to ...

DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Summer Upswing to Follow Winter Slump

The Omicron wave of the coronavirus has impacted economies worldwide, resulting in a bleak winter. Although restrictions on economic and public life have been less severe than at the beginning of 2021 in many places—mainly due to the progress of vaccination campaigns—and there are prospects of easing restrictions in Germany as well, the labor shortage caused by the current rates of infection is noticeable. ...

Way Off: The Effect of Minimum Distance Regulation on the Deployment and Cost of Wind Power

With the expansion of onshore wind power, countries increasingly consider the introduction of minimum distance regulations between wind turbines to nearby residential areas, to increase public acceptance. In 2014, the German federal state of Bavaria introduced a minimum distance regulation that requires new wind turbines to be ten times their total height away from settlements (10-H regulation). This ...

SOEP-Core – 2019: Sampling, Nonresponse, and Weighting in the Sample P

Belonging or Estrangement – the European Refugee Crisis and its Effects on Immigrant Identity

This study deals with the impact of the 2015 European Refugee Crisis on the ethnic identity of resident migrants in Germany. To derive plausibly causal estimates, I exploit the quasi-experimental setting in Germany, by which refugees are allocated to different counties by state authorities without being able to choose their locations themselves. This study finds that higher...