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Earn More Tomorrow: Overconfidence, Income Expectations and Consumer Indebtedness

This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt-taking. We show suggestive evidence for a link between overconfidence and borrowing behavior in a representative survey of German households (GSOEP-IS). This motivates a laboratory experiment to study causality behind these effects. In two experiments, participants can purchase goods by borrowing ...

Energetische Gebäudesanierung muss wieder in Schwung gebracht werden

Access to Digital Finance: Equity Crowdfunding across Countries and Platforms

Financing entrepreneurship spurs innovation and economic growth. Digital financial platforms that crowdfund equity for entrepreneurs have emerged globally, yet they remain poorly understood. We model equity crowdfunding in terms of the relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised per pitch. We examine heterogeneity in the average amount raised per pitch that is associated ...

Integrating Out Natural Disaster Shocks

We study the role of international financial integration in buffering natural disaster shocks, using a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. Conditioning on such exogenous events addresses the endogeneity between financial structures and economic conditions. We document that integration improves shock absorption: output, consumption, and investment are significantly higher after a shock ...

The effect of pension reforms on old age poverty

This project analyses various reform and labour market scenarios with regard to their impact on old-age poverty in the period up to 2045. These are changes to the lower limit for the level of protection in the GRV (holding lines), the pension adjustment rule, a higher retirement age, a generous exemption scheme for pension income from the GRV for basic security, and increased gainful employment at...

Broad Electricity Price Subsidies for Industry Are Not a Suitable Relief Instrument

The sharp rise in electricity prices has led to a discussion on possible subsidies for companies in the form of an industrial power tariff. The subsidies should help companies remain internationally competitive and prevent them from relocating overseas. Although German electricity prices for (industrial) firms are around the European average due to many tax exemptions, they are significantly higher ...

Industrial electricity prices in Germany have risen sharply

CANCELED: Ethnic segregation in a stratified school system: Does ability tracking hamper ‘white flight’ from local schools?

Research on parental school choice provides strong evidence of so-called ‘white flight’ – that ethnic majority parents avoid choosing a local school if it contains large numbers of ethnic minority students. In this study, we examine such segregating choices in a formally stratified school system. Theoretically, we argue that segregating choices are less common in an educational setting where...

The Power of Where – Spatial Insights from Survey Data

Joint Spring Meeting of BBSR, BTU & SOEP RegioHub Linking survey data with spatial data is an emerging topic in the social sciences, providing the possibility to contextualize sociodemographic information and social attitudes with geospatial data such as regional indicators, neighborhood information, or environmental time series. The provision of health care, education, housing markets, or...

Joint Economic Forecast: Purchasing power returns ‒ political uncertainty high

According to the Joint Economic Forecast, Germany's gross domestic product declines by 0.6% in 2023. This is a strong downward revision of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast made in spring 2023. "The most important reason for this revision is that industry and private con­sumption are recovering more slowly than we expected in spring," says Oliver Holtemöller, Vice President and Head of the Macroeconomics ...