The euro area continues to recover – emerging countries’ economies are faltering – public budget with surplus despite challenges posed by increasing number of refugees The German economy remains on track, even as things are getting rockier: The researchers at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) forecast a 1.8 percent increase in GDP for this year and a ...
Statistical Analysis in surveys is generally facing missing data. In longitudinal studies for some missing values there might be past or future data points available. The question arises how to successfully transform this advantage into improvedimputation strategies. In a simulation study the authors compare six combinations of cross‐sectional and longitudinal imputation strategies for German wealth ...
Gert G. Wagner has been elected Speaker of Section B “Economics, Social Sciences, Spatial Research“ of the Leibniz Association. He will be a member of the Executive Board for the next two years. The member institutes of the Leibniz Association form five sections that reflect its scientific profile and expertise. The main tasks of the Sections are to drive the sharing of scientific experience ...
Ingrid Tucci will be leaving the SOEP on November 1. She applied to the 2015 researchers’ competition of the French National Center for Scientific Research in the area of sociology and her achievements and research were evaluated as the best. Starting in November, she will be working at the CNRS Institute of Labour Economics and Industrial Sociology (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie ...
We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to permanent, or very persistent, slumps characterized by unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth trap. In a stagnation trap, the central bank is unable to restore full employment because weak growth pushes...
Renminbi internationalisation has brought about an active offshore market where the exchange rate frequently diverges from the onshore market. Using extended GARCH models, we explore the role of fundamentals, global factors and policies related to renminbi internationalisation in driving the pricing differential between the onshore and offshore exchange rates. Differences in...
This talk is based on two joint works with Isaac Sserwanja: "Corporate Bond Yields in the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy" "Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, and Output: Equilibrium-Correction Dynamics in the US Economy"
In this paper, we develop a very simple theoretical framework for analyzing optimal FX intervention for an EM which is exposed to a capital outows shock, taking explicit account of the possibility that reserves may run out. The full commitment solution entails a sustained path of FX intervention, with reserves optimally running out for persistent shocks. This solution is not time consistent. The...
This paper estimates the effects of banks' foreign exposures on local lending and labor markets in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 world financial crisis for the Brazilian financial systems. The analysis focuses on two dimensions of banks' foreign exposures: foreign ownership and foreign funding. Our results suggest that both exposure dimensions represent distinct transmission mechanisms affecting...
