External refereed essays

An Analysis of a Forward Capacity Market with Long-Term Contracts

We analyze the effectiveness of a forward capacity market (FCM) with long-term contracts in an electricity market in the presence of a growing share of renewable energy. An agent-based model is used for this analysis. Capacity markets can compensate for the deteriorating incentive to invest in controllable power plants when the share of variable renewable energy sources grows, but may create volatile ...

Third Country Effects of Fiscal Devaluations

We analyze fiscal devaluation in a three-country model. The introduction of the third country, outside a monetary union, increases the expansionary effect of fiscal devaluation and the second country of the monetary union experiences a boom instead of a recession.

Marginal Employment for Welfare Recipients: Stepping Stone or Obstacle?

Marginal employment (ME) is one of the largest forms of atypical employment in Germany. We analyse whether ME has a ‘stepping stone’ function for unemployed individuals, i.e., whether ME increases the subsequent probability of regular employment. We find differing treatment effects by unemployment duration. According to our results, ME increases the likelihood of regular employment within a 3-year ...

Will You Still Trust Me Tomorrow? The Causal Effect of Terrorism on Social Trust

How do people respond to terrorist events? Exploiting the timing of the 2010 wave of the annual ‘Society Opinion Media’ survey in Sweden, we study the causal effect of the Stockholm bombings of 11 December 2010 on Swedish public opinion. Our main contribution is that we draw explicit attention to the link between terrorist events and individuals’ social trust. While we identify a strong effect on individuals’ ...

Long-Term Growth Perspectives in Japan and the Euro Area

Euro area countries and Japan are confronted with similar challenges. Potential output is on a declining trend in the Euro area, and the decrease started well before the financial crisis. In Japan, low-output growth is a striking feature since many years, despite the unconventional monetary policy stance and numerous fiscal stimulus programs provided by the government. According to a growth accounting ...

Electrification of a City Bus Network: An Optimization Model for Cost-Effective Placing of Charging Infrastructure and Battery Sizing of Fast-Charging Electric Bus Systems

The deployment of battery-powered electric bus systems within the public transportation sector plays an important role in increasing energy efficiency and abating emissions. Rising attention is given to bus systems using fast charging technology. This concept requires a comprehensive infrastructure to equip bus routes with charging stations. The combination of charging infrastructure and bus batteries ...

Analyzing the Continuity of Attitudinal and Perceptual Indicators in Hybrid Choice Models

The main objective of this paper is to compare the consequences of treating the attitudinal and perceptual indicators of hybrid discrete choice (HDC) models as continuous or ordinal outcomes. Based on tradition and computational reasons, such indicators are still predominantly treated as continuous outcomes in practice. This usually neglects their nature (as respondents are normally asked to state ...

Cross-Border Effects of Capacity Mechanisms in Interconnected Power Systems

The cross-border effects of a capacity market and a strategic reserve in interconnected electricity markets are modeled using an agent-based modeling methodology. Both capacity mechanisms improve the security of supply and reduce consumer costs. Our results indicate that interconnections do not affect the effectiveness of a capacity market, while a strategic reserve is affected negatively. The neighboring ...

The Effectiveness of Capacity Markets in the Presence of a High Portfolio Share of Renewable Energy Sources

The effectiveness of a capacity market is analyzed by simulating three conditions that may cause suboptimal investment in the electricity generation: imperfect information and uncertainty; declining demand shocks resulting in load loss; and a growing share of renewable energy sources in the generation portfolio. Implementation of a capacity market can improve supply adequacy and reduce consumer costs. ...

Parental Socio-Economic Status and Childcare Quality: Early Inequalities in Educational Opportunity?

This study examines whether children from potentially disadvantaged families attend early childhood education and care (ECEC) centers of lower quality compared to more advantaged children in the universal and strongly state-subsidized ECEC system in Germany. We combine the representative German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) with the 2014 K2ID- SOEP extension study on ECEC quality. We run linear and logistic ...

The Relation between Religiosity and Muslims' Social Integration: A Two-Wave Study of Recent Immigrants in Three European Countries

Does their degree of religiosity affect how successfully recent Muslim migrants integrate socially into the host society in terms of their social contacts with the majority population and their ethno-religious group? And/or do these co-ethnic and interethnic social contacts affect the religiosity of Muslim migrants over time? On the basis of a two-wave study among recent migrants in Germany, the Netherlands ...

Credit Market Structure and Collateral in Rural Thailand

This paper empirically examines reliance on collateral in different credit market segments—formal, semiformal and informal lending—of a developing rural financial market. Determinants of collateralization indicate that all three types of lenders price risk conventionally. Controlled for standard risk factors, however, formal lenders rely on collateral about 40 per cent more often than informal lenders. ...

Germany and Poland in the Energy Union: Moving from Controversies to Shared Interests?

Who Is Minding the Kids? New Developments and Lost Opportunities in Reforming the British Early Education Workforce

The last 20 years have seen a substantial increase in enrolment in early childhood education and care (ECEC) in several European countries. The expansion of ECEC services inevitably requires new staff. There is however a tension between a rapid growth of services via the creation of low-paid, low-qualified jobs and the aspiration, voiced unanimously by policy makers, to improve the qualification and ...

Does Financial Education Impact Financial Literacy and Financial Behavior, and If So, When?

In a meta-analysis of 126 impact evaluation studies, we find that financial education significantly impacts financial behavior and, to an even larger extent, financial literacy. These results also hold for the subsample of randomized experiments (RCTs). However, intervention impacts are highly heterogeneous: financial education is less effective for low-income clients as well as in low- and lower-middle–income ...

Non-Migrants' Interethnic Relationships with Migrants: The Role of the Residential Area, the Workplace, and Attitudes toward Migrants from a Longitudinal Perspective

This paper studies the determinants of interethnic relationships between non-migrants and migrants in Germany. A large body of literature documents that such relationships generate positive outcomes for individual migrants as well as non-migrants and the social cohesion of host-societies at large. Previous research tends to focus on the migrant side, thereby neglecting the factors enabling non-migrants’ ...

Earnings Responses to Social Security Contributions

This paper utilises the discontinuities induced by earnings caps for social security contributions (SSC) in Germany to analyse the effect of SSC on gross labour earnings. Economic incidence is identified by exploiting an increase of a regional earnings cap of health and long-term care insurance as a natural experiment. Based on administrative data, difference-in-differences models are estimated. I ...

Estimation of Structural Vector Autoregressive Models

In this survey, estimation methods for structural vector autoregressive models are presented in a systematic way. Both frequentist and Bayesian methods are considered. Depending on the model setup and type of restrictions, least squares estimation, instrumental variables estimation, method-of-moments estimation and generalized method-of-moments are considered. The methods are presented in a unified ...

OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and the Shale Revolution: Insights from Equilibrium Modelling and Oil Politics

Why did OPEC not cut oil production in the wake of 2014's price fall? This study aims at aiding the mostly qualitative discussion with quantitative evidence from computing quarterly partial market equilibria Q4 2011 – Q4 2015 under present short-term profit maximisation and different competition setups. Although the model performs reasonably well in explaining pre-2014 prices, all setups fail to capture ...

Neighbourhood Turnover and Teenage Attainment

Theories about neighbours’ influence on children's education that are based on social capital, cohesion, and disorganisation stress the importance of neighbourhood stability. This is because stability is regarded as necessary for building strong ties and friendships, which in turn affect educational outcomes. However, amongst the vast number of studies on the effect of neighbours on a child's education, ...