Europe

Stability Implications of Financial Interconnectedness under the Capital Markets Union

In the run-up to the European elections in May 2019, the European Commission is trying to advance the initiatives laid out in its action plan for a European Capital Markets Union (CMU). In order to diversify financing sources and to increase private risk sharing, the CMU aims at deepening the integration of European equity and debt markets. While there are benefits associated with more cross-border ...

Italy Must Foster High Growth Industries

by Stefan Gebauer, Alexander S. Kritikos, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Anselm Mattes and Malte Rieth Italy has yet to recover from the economic consequences of the financial and sovereign debt crisis that began more than a decade ago. In addition to losing 1.4 million jobs across the manufacturing and construction sectors, new industries driving growth across the EU, such as knowledge-intensive services, ...

EU Commission proposal for 2021–2027 budget: lost opportunities

In May, the EU Commission presented its proposal for the EU budget for 2021 to 2027—a period of change for the EU. Not only will Great Britain’s exit from the Union leave a significant hole in the budget, but at the same time the budget must cover a vast range of additional requirements. Current international policy developments are already demanding the EU acting as a community, and the ...

Forward guidance and policy normalisation

Benoît Cœuré has been a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank since 1 January 2012. He is responsible for International and European Relations, Market Operations and the Oversight of Payment Systems. He is the Chairman of the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) of the Bank for International Settlements, and has held this position since...

The Greek Private Sector Remains Full of Untapped Potential

Private businesses’ nominal value added in Greece has fallen by 38 percent over the last ten years. Micro firms were hit particularly hard. Despite efforts to stabilize the macroeconomic environment, there are only weak signs of recovery. Future prospects are not much better, as—with the exception of labor market regulations—the conditions for investments and business activities have not been sufficiently ...

European capital markets and macroeconomic stability: The role of equity and debt

Monetary Policy Normalization in the Euro Area

The ECB announced in October 2018 that it would begin to cut back the amount of monthly asset purchases starting January 2018 while extending the duration of the purchases until at least September 2018. At it latest Governor’s Council meeting in January 2019 it decided to remain on this track despite a sharp appreciation of the euro in the meanwhile. These steps were just two on a longer and potentially ...

Vierteljahrsheft zur Wirtschaftsforschung: „EU Capital Markets Union: an alluring opportunity or a blind alley? The macro-perspective: CMU and risk-sharing“

Fostering cross-country risk-sharing via capital markets is a central macroeconomic objective of the Capital Markets Union. Risk-sharing means that individuals, firms or public-sector authorities, located in a region or country suffering from a temporary and idiosyncratic economic shock, would be able to compensate the regional output gap (i. e., lack of aggregate demand, increasing unemployment and ...

Growing United Upgrading Europe´s Convergence Machine

by Arup Banerji, Regional Director for the European Union countries, The World Bank Group and Christian Bodewig, Program Leader for Inclusive Growth, The World Bank Group Since its foundation more than 60 years ago, the European Union (EU) has become the modern world’s greatest “convergence machine,” propelling poorer, and newer, member states to become high-income...

Bretton Woods, Brussels, and Beyond: Redesigning the Institutions of Europe

Economists have discussed extensively what to do to reform the European Project and how, but have been broadly silent on who and when. Which institutions and rules are needed, and when? This eBook shows that such institutional questions, although seldomly raised, are of fundamental importance for the future of European integration.  To participate, we kindly ask you to register at events@diw...

Strengthening the Euro Area Architecture

The DIW Europe Lecture is a lecture series by leading policy-makers and academics on the future of Europe. The series aims at fostering and informing the debate on key European policy issues, and at bringing this debate to the heart of Germany's policy-making in Berlin.  Following an outstanding private sector career in which she had served as the first Chairwoman of the international law...

Stability, Equity and Monetary Policy

The DIW Europe Lecture is a lecture series by leading policy-makers and academics on the future of Europe. The series aims at fostering and informing the debate on key European policy issues, and at bringing this debate to the heart of Germany's policy-making in Berlin. The President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, will look at Europe’s economic and financial future: which...

The Greek private sector remains full of untapped potential

Private businesses’ nominal value added in Greece has fallen by 38 percent over the last ten years. Micro firms were hit particularly hard. Despite efforts to stabilize the macroeconomic environment, there are only weak signs of recovery. Future prospects are not much better, as—with the exception of labor market regulations—the conditions for investments and business activities have ...

A Stabilization Fund Can Make the Euro Area More Crisis-Proof

Reorganizing European fiscal policy is a main topic in current reform considerations. In particular, the creation of a European stabilization mechanism is being discussed. This study examines the macroeconomic effects of a stabilization fund, the economic consequences of which are analyzed in an equilibrium model. The model shows that a stabilization fund reduces economic fluctuations and is thus a ...

German and Euro Area Economies Will Benefit from a U.S. Interest Rate Hike in the Short Term

To accompany the economic upturn in the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank has been raising its benchmark interest rate incrementally. In an increasingly globalized world in which the American economy plays a key role, an action like this has spillover effects on the international level. Based on a dynamic factor model, the present study shows that the member states of the euro area—Germany in particular—can ...

Low Interest Rate Environment Amplifies Negative Effects of Austerity Policy

Large-scale fiscal consolidations and the implementation of structural reforms should help southern European countries resolve the crisis. But recent studies indicate that in conjunction with the low interest rate in the euro area, the austerity measures that has been imposed could have the opposite effect, leading to an increase in sovereign debt and economic slowdown. For this reason, a more balanced ...

SBBS – De-risking Europe’s Financial Markets

Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has proven particularly pernicious. A key reason for that was the strong link between banks and states. Banks’ fate was inextricably mingled with their respective sovereign, what was alluded to as the doom-loop. From a euro area perspective, banks were under-diversified, exposed to too much concentration risk. One interesting answer to this issue could be...

Expansive monetary policy: Early exit from bond purchase program could reduce GDP growth and inflation in the euro area

The following study from DIW Berlin examines the effects of different exit scenarios from the European Central bank’s bond purchase program on the European economy – exiting early would especially depress the inflation rate What if the ECB were to reduce its bond purchase program by more than what it reported at the end of October? What if it reduced its bond holdings quicker or earlier? ...

The Populist Turn in American Politics: Implications for Europe

This lecture will trace the populist turn in American politics, and identify instances and conditions under which mainstream politicians and parties succeeded and failed in stemming the populist tide. Barry Eichengreen is George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California at Berkeley, Research Associate of the National Bureau of...