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DIW Discussion Papers 1994 / 2022
This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale and rental offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the ...
2022| Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen, Felix Weinhardt
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Publication
The SOEPnewsletter January 2022 in it's html version.
Enjoy reading
01.02.2022
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DIW Discussion Papers 1995 / 2022
We develop a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity and bounded rationality in the form of cognitive discounting. The interaction of household heterogeneity and bounded rationality generates amplification of monetary and fiscal policy through indirect general equilibrium effects while simultaneously ruling out the forward guidance puzzle and remaining stable at the effective lower bound. ...
2022| Oliver Pfäuti, Fabian Seyrich
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DIW Discussion Papers 1993 / 2022
This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...
2022| Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
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Seiten
December 16, 2021, marked ten years since Joachim R. Frick’s death. Joachim was part of the SOEP for over 20 years and a deeply valued colleague.
Markus Grabka remembers:
I first met Joachim in December of 1992. I was being interviewed for a student assistant position at the DIW in Dahlem. At that time, the SOEP had just a handful of staff members, so everyone in the department was there ...
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DIW Discussion Papers 1992 / 2022
We investigate how internal distribution motives can interfere with the economic objectives of capital controls. In order to do this, we provide a model showing that elite capture can affect optimal debt repatriations and the management of official reserves under capital controls. Relying on these theoretical insights and a wealth of quantitative and qualitative historical evidence, we study one of ...
2022| Andrea Papadia, Claudio A. Schioppa
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The core of the 36th round of the Energy Modeling Forum project shows that it is more likely that major fossil-fuel exporters, such as the Middle East, are highly affected because of the decrease in fossil-fuel extractions required for the worldwide fulfillment of the Paris agreement. We employ a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model of global trade and energy to examine the ...
In:
Energy Economics
104 (2021), 105629, 19 S.
| Mohammad M. Khabbazan, Christian von Hirschhausen
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Refereed essays Web of Science
So far, scientific analyses have mainly focused on the pros and cons of solar geoengineering or solar radiation management (SRM) as a climate policy option in mere isolation. Here, we put SRM into the context of mitigation by a strictly temperature-target-based approach. As the main innovation, we present a scheme that extends the applicability regime of temperature targets from mitigation-only to ...
In:
Earth System Dynamics
12 (2021), 4, S. 1529–1542
| Mohammad M. Khabbazan, Marius Stankoweit, Elnaz Roshan, Hauke Schmidt, Hermann Held
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Side effects of “solar-radiation management” (SRM) might be perceived as an important metric when society decides on implementing SRM as a climate policy option to alleviate anthropogenic global warming. We generalize cost-risk analysis that originally trades off expected welfare loss from climate policy costs and risks from transgressing climate targets to also include risks from applying SRM. In ...
In:
Environmental Modeling and Assessment
26 (2021), 5, S. 823–836
| Elnaz Roshan, Mohammad M. Khabbazan, Hermann Held
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Governments across the world have implemented restrictive policies to slow the spread of COVID-19. Recommended face mask use has been a controversially discussed policy, among others, due to potential adverse effects on physical distancing. Using a randomized field experiment (N = 300), we show that individuals kept a significantly larger distance from someone wearing a face mask than from an unmasked ...
In:
Journal of the Economic Science Association
7 (2021), 2, S. 139–158
| Gyula Seres, Anna Helen Balleyer, Nicola Cerutti, Anastasia Danilov, Jana Friedrichsen, Yiming Liu, Müge Süer