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House Price Expectations

Discussion Papers 1994, 33 S.

Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen, Felix Weinhardt


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Published in: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 218 (2024), S. 379–398


This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale and rental offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market characteristics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Felix Weinhardt

Research Associate in the Public Economics Department

Peter Haan

Head of Department in the Public Economics Department

JEL-Classification: R21;R31
Keywords: Housing markets, price expectations
Frei zugängliche Version: (econstor)