Diskussionspapiere

Redaktion und HerausgeberInnen

Die WissenschaftlerInnen des DIW Berlin veröffentlichen ihre Forschungsergebnisse üblicherweise in Fachzeitschriften. Dieser Prozess kann unter Umständen mehrere Monate dauern - deshalb gibt das DIW Berlin seit 1989 die Diskussionspapiere heraus, in denen wir die Forschungsergebnisse vorab veröffentlichen. So gelangen aktuelle Forschungsergebnisse auch in die aktuelle Diskussion.

Hinweise für AutorInnen

Zur Veröffentlichung in der Reihe der DIW-Diskussionspapiere eingereicht werden können: Papiere von DIW-MitarbeiterInnen, DIW-ForschungsdirektorInnen, DIW-Research Affiliates und GastwissenschaftlerInnen, die mindestens eine Woche am DIW Berlin verbracht haben und in der Dankesfußnote dem DIW Berlin danken.
Das eingereichte Papier wird dem/der zuständigen AbteilungsleiterIn im DIW Berlin in elektronischer Form zugeschickt. Durch ein internes Referee-Verfahren wird geprüft, ob das Papier sehr gute Chancen für eine Veröffentlichung in einer referierten Zeitschrift hat. Auf der Basis eines Refereereports wird dann über die Veröffentlichung entschieden. Hat ein Papier bereits eine Veröffentlichungszusage einer referierten SSCI-Zeitschrift oder eine Einladung zu einer Re-Submission in einem sehr guten Journal, erscheint das Papier sofort ohne ein Referee-Verfahren.

1876 Ergebnisse, ab 1
Diskussionspapiere 1873 / 2020

The Macroeconomic Effects of a European Deposit (Re-) Insurance Scheme

While the first two pillars of the European Banking Union have been implemented, a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) is still not in place. To facilitate its introduction, recent proposals argue in favor of a reinsurance scheme. In this paper, we use a regime-switching open-economy DSGE model with bank default and bank-government linkages to assess the relative efficiency of such a scheme. We ...

2020| Marius Clemens, Stefan Gebauer, Tobias König
Diskussionspapiere 1872 / 2020

Active, or Passive? Revisiting the Role of Fiscal Policy in the Great Inflation

We reexamine whether pre-Volcker U.S. fiscal policy was active or passive. To do so, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. Unlike existing studies, we do not have to treat each policy regime as distinct, separately estimated, models. Rather, SMC enables us to estimate the DSGE model over its entire ...

2020| Stephanie Ettmeier, Alexander Kriwoluzky
Diskussionspapiere 1871 / 2020

Structural Vector Autoregressive Models with more Shocks than Variables Identified via Heteroskedasticity

In conventional structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models it is assumed that there are at most as many structural shocks as there are variables in the model. It is pointed out that heteroskedasticity can be used to identify more shocks than variables. However, even if there is heteroskedasticity, the number of shocks that can be identified is limited. A number of results are provided that allow ...

2020| Helmut Lütkepohl
Diskussionspapiere 1870 / 2020

Difference-in-Differences to Identify Causal Effects of COVID-19 Policies

Policymakers have implemented a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the spread of COVID-19. Variation in policies across jurisdictions and over time strongly suggests a difference-in-differences (DD) research design to estimate causal effects of counter-COVID measures. We discuss threats to the validity of these DD designs and make recommendations about how researchers can avoid ...

2020| Andrew Goodman-Bacon, Jan Marcus
Diskussionspapiere 1869 / 2020

Institutional Diversity in Domestic Banking Sectors and Bank Stability: A Cross-Country Study

This paper analyzes the causal relationship between institutional diversity in domestic banking sectors and bank stability. We use a large bank- and country-level unbalanced panel data set covering the EU member states’ banking sectors between 1998 and 2014. Constructing two distinct indicators for measuring institutional diversity, we find that a high degree of institutional diversity in the domestic ...

2020| Christopher F. Baum, Caterina Forti Grazzini, Dorothea Schäfer
Diskussionspapiere 1868 / 2020

Knowledge-Based Capital and Productivity Divergence

Understanding the causes of the slowdown in aggregate productivity growth is key to maintaining the competitiveness of advanced economies and ensuring long-term economic prosperity. This paper is the first to provide evidence that investment in Knowledge-Based Capital (KBC), despite having a positive effect on productivity at the micro level, is a driver of the weak productivity performance at the ...

2020| Marie Le Mouel, Alexander Schiersch
Diskussionspapiere 1867 / 2020

Way Off: The Effect of Minimum Distance Regulation on the Deployment of Wind Power

Several countries and regions have introduced mandatory minimum distances of wind turbines to nearby residential areas, in order to increase public acceptance of wind power. Germany’s largest federal state Bavaria introduced such separation distances of ten times the height of new wind turbines in 2014. Here, we provide a novel monthly district-level dataset of construction permits for wind turbines ...

2020| Jan Stede, Nils May
Diskussionspapiere 1866 / 2020

Currency Futures' Risk Premia and Risk Factors

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling period. The FFP appears to be a pre-crisis phenomenon and is only observed for maturities longer than about one ...

2020| Kerstin Bernoth, Jürgen von Hagen, Casper G. de Vries
Diskussionspapiere 1865 / 2020

Starke Erwartungsreaktionen auf Angela Merkels Covid-Erklärungen

Wir führen hochfrequente Befragungen der in Deutschland lebenden Personen durch und erheben die Erwartungen zur Dauer der Covid-bedingten Beschränkungen des öffentlichen Lebens. In einer ersten Analyse der Daten finden wir Hinweise, dass zwei in den Erhebungszeitraum fallenden öffentlichen Auftritte von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel die Erwartungen stark beeinflussen. Insbesondere messen wir nach Merkels ...

2020| Peter Haan, Andreas Peichl, Annekatrin Schrenker, Georg Weizsäcker, Joachim Winter
Diskussionspapiere 1864 / 2020

Financial Education Affects Financial Knowledge and Downstream Behaviors

We study the rapidly growing literature on the causal effects of financial education programs in a meta-analysis of 76 randomized experiments with a total sample size of over 160,000 individuals. The evidence shows that financial education programs have, on average, positive causal treatment effects on financial knowledge and downstream financial behaviors. Treatment effects are economically meaningful ...

2020| Tim Kaiser, Annamaria Lusardi, Lukas Menkhoff, Carly Urban
Diskussionspapiere 1863 / 2020

A Glimpse of Freedom: Allied Occupation and Political Resistance in East Germany

This paper studies costly political resistance in a non-democracy. When Nazi Germany surrendered in May 1945, 40% of the designated Soviet occupation zone was initially captured by the western Allied Expeditionary Force. This occupation was short-lived: Soviet forces took over after less than two months and installed an authoritarian regime in what became the German Democratic Republic (GDR). We exploit ...

2020| Luis R. Martinez, Jonas Jessen, Guo Xu
Diskussionspapiere 1862 / 2020

Insolvency Regimes and Cross-Border Investment Decisions

This paper investigates the effect of reforms of insolvency regulations on cross-border debt and equity investments at a sectoral level. Using disaggregated data from the Securities Holdings Statistics by Sector (SHSS) and OECD-indicators on the efficiency of insolvency regulations, we find that investors prefer to invest more in countries with more efficient insolvency frameworks. The effect, however, ...

2020| Tatsiana Kliatskova, Loïc Baptiste Savatier
Diskussionspapiere 1861 / 2020

Viral Shocks to the World Economy

We construct a news-based viral disease index and study the dynamic impact of epidemics on the world economy, using structural vector autoregressions. Epidemic shocks have persistently negative effects, both directly and indirectly, on affected countries and on world output. The shocks lead to a significant fall in global trade, employment, and consumer prices for three quarters, and the losses are ...

2020| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Malte Rieth
Diskussionspapiere 1860 / 2020

The Financial Accelerator, Wages, and Optimal Monetary Policy

This paper studies the effects of labor market outcomes on firms’ loan demand and on credit intermediation. In a first step, I investigate how wages in the production sector affect bank net worth and the process of financial intermediation in partial equilibrium. Second, the role of the identified channels are studied in general equilibrium using a new- Keynesian DSGE-model with financial frictions and ...

2020| Tobias König
Diskussionspapiere 1859 / 2020

Time-Consistent Carbon Pricing: The Role of Carbon Contracts for Differences

Carbon pricing decisions by governments are prone to time-inconsistency, which causes the private sector to underinvest in emission-reducing technologies. We show that incentives for decarbonization can be improved if complementing carbon pricing with carbon contracts for differences, where the government commits to pay a fixed carbon price level to the investors. We derive conditions under which the ...

2020| Olga Chiappinelli, Karsten Neuhoff
Diskussionspapiere 1858 / 2020

Culture and Gender Allocation of Tasks: Source Country Characteristics and the Division of Non-Market Work among US Immigrants

There is a well-known gender difference in time allocation within the household, which has important implications for gender differences in labor market outcomes. We ask how malleable this gender difference in time allocation is to culture. In particular, we ask if US immigrants allocate tasks differently depending upon the characteristics of the source countries from which they emigrated. Using ...

2020| Francine D. Blau, Lawrence M. Kahn, Matthew Comey, Amanda Eng, Pamela Meyerhofer, Alexander Willén
Diskussionspapiere 1857 / 2020

Entwicklung der Demographie, der Erwerbstätigkeit sowie des Leistungsniveaus und der Finanzierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung

Dieses Papier stellt Modellrechnungen zur Entwicklung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung (GRV) vor. Es beruht vorwiegend auf dem MEA-PENSIM Modell des Munich Center of the Economics of Aging (MEA) und ergänzend auf dem PENPRO-Modell des DIW. Das Modell projiziert aus Annahmen und Setzungen in mehreren Schritten die Entwicklung der Demographie und Beschäftigung sowie der wichtigsten Kenngrößen der ...

2020| Axel Börsch-Supan, Johannes Rausch, Hermann Buslei, Johannes Geyer
Diskussionspapiere 1856 / 2020

Technology Policy and Market Structure: Evidence from the Power Sector

We show how policies to trigger clean technologies change price competition and market structure. We present evidence from electricity markets, where regulators have implemented different policies to subsidize clean energy. Building on a multi-unit auction model, we show that currently applied subsidy designs either foster or attenuate competition. Fixed, price-independent output subsidies decrease ...

2020| Moritz Bohland, Sebastian Schwenen
Diskussionspapiere 1855 / 2020

Border Carbon Adjustments and Alternative Measures for the EU ETS: An Evaluation

As part of its Green Deal, the European Commission is considering the introduction of border carbon adjustments and alternative measures. The measures, which would primarily apply to basic materials like steel and cement, pursue a double objective: they are aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of carbon pricing for the transition to climate neutrality but also at avoiding carbon leakage risks. When ...

2020| Roland Ismer, Karsten Neuhoff, Alice Pirlot
Diskussionspapiere 1854 / 2020

The Dynamic Impact of FX Interventions on Financial Markets

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally, we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and that this impact ...

2020| Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, Tobias Stöhr
1876 Ergebnisse, ab 1