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Diskussionspapiere 2118 / 2025
We examine the impact of the war in Ukraine on long-term contracts in energy markets. We find that traded contract volumes fall by 65 percent in the first months of the war. A collapse in bilateral trading contributes most to this decline. To protect themselves from price shocks, firms increasingly turned to long-term contracts already before the war. In sum, our results show that the market continued ...
2025| Mats Kröger, Karsten Neuhoff, Sebastian Schwenen
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Diskussionspapiere 2117 / 2025
This paper documents the rise of corporate tax-base narrowing measures in the EU using a novel dataset covering both tax rate and tax base reforms implemented between 2014 and 2022. Our findings indicate a shift away from the ’cut rate – broaden base’ approach, as governments increasingly align corporate taxation with industrial policy objectives. We show that EU tax competition exerts downward pressure ...
2025| Jules Ducept, Sarah Godar
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Diskussionspapiere 2116 / 2025
The Covid-19 pandemic caused a global economic crisis, leading governments to provide substantial State Aid to support firms. This paper examines the effectiveness of Covid-related financial support in Spain and Italy, focusing on its impact on firm recovery. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach combined with propensity score weighting, it compares outcomes of similar firms receiving aid ...
2025| Giulia Canzian, Elena Crivellaro, Tomaso Duso, Antonella Rita Ferrara, Alessandro Sasso, Stefano Verzillo
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Diskussionspapiere 2115 / 2025
How do firms respond to greener household preferences? We construct a novel index of environmental willingness to act on the state-quarter level based on Google Trends search data. Relating the index to firm-level information on the U.S. auto- motive sector from 2006 to 2019, we find ambiguous results. On average, firms innovate more in electric, hydrogen, and hybrid (clean) technologies and reduce ...
2025| Olimpia Cutinelli-Rendina, Sonja Dobkowitz, Antoine Mayerowitz
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Diskussionspapiere 2114 / 2025
European climate policy was traditionally pursued in the expectation of global policy convergence, ensuring equal opportunities for domestic and foreign firms in achieving climate neutrality. However, increasing geopolitical fragmentation has disrupted this expectation. Across the globe, national strategies increasingly favor economic policies that benefit domestic industries and coercive economic ...
2025| Till Köveker, Fernanda Ballesteros, Franziska Klaucke, Antonia Kurz, Karsten Neuhoff, Paula Niemöller, Sangeeth Selvaraju
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Diskussionspapiere 2113 / 2025
Housing markets are affected by a large variety of factors. Among them, governmental regulations play an important role. Besides desired effects, all these policies exert a number of side effects, some of which can even offset the desired effects. In addition, different policies can cancel out each other. Therefore, it is important to be aware of the effects of individual policies and the composite ...
2025| Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Diskussionspapiere 2112 / 2025
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was accompanied by a significant reduction of its gas supply to Europe, causing sharp energy price surges and prompting governments to respond with public appeals and programs aimed at reducing consumption. This paper investigates the effects of price increases and non-monetary factors, such as public appeals and saving programs, on residential energy savings during ...
2025| Sophie M. Behr, Till Köveker, Merve Kücük
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Diskussionspapiere 2111 / 2025
The new US administration has a clear agenda of reducing imports to the US and attract FDI by reducing tariffs and using the proceeds for supporting investment in the US. This paper uses a dynamic two country US vs RoW model where monopolistically competitive firms make export and FDI decisions. We study how this additional FDI channel affects the impact of import tariffs on the US and RoW economy. ...
2025| Kaan Celebi, Werner Roeger
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Diskussionspapiere 2110 / 2025
This paper analyzes possibly time-varying shock transmission in structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models when the reduced-form VAR coefficients are time-invariant and the shocks are identified through non-Gaussianity. To check for possible time-variation in the impulse responses, we propose Wald tests for two situations: (1) homoskedastic and (2) heteroskedastic structural shocks. For the latter ...
2025| Helmut Lütkepohl, Till Strohsal
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Diskussionspapiere 2109 / 2025
In macroeconomic models featuring borrowing-constrained agents, the effects of monetary policy depend on the fiscal reaction to interest rate changes. This paper presents new evidence on the dynamic causal effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on fiscal instruments and estimates a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with fiscal feedback rules to match the empirical results. I find that U.S. fiscal ...
2025| Frederik Kurcz
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Diskussionspapiere 2108 / 2025
In conventional proxy VAR analysis, the shocks of interest are identified by external instruments. This is typically accomplished by considering the covariance of the instruments and the reduced-form residuals. Alternatively, the instruments may be internalized by augmenting the VAR process by the instruments or proxies. These alternative identification methods are compared and it is shown that the ...
2025| Martin Bruns, Helmut Lütkepohl
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Diskussionspapiere 2107 / 2025
The article documents the construction of a narrative instrument for government investment, used in the paper ‘An Estimation and Decomposition of the Government Investment Multiplier’.
2025| Marius Clemens, Claus Michelsen, Malte Rieth
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Diskussionspapiere 2106 / 2025
We construct a narrative instrument for government investment from official records in Germany. Using structural vector autoregressions, we document a significant crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of roughly 2. Then, we match a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to the empirical responses, and we decompose the multiplier into three channels. Public investment ...
2025| Marius Clemens, Claus Michelsen, Malte Rieth
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Diskussionspapiere 2105 / 2024
German history over the past 125 years has been turbulent. Marked by two world wars, revolutions and major regime changes, as well as a hyperinflation and three currency reforms, expropriations and territorial divisions, it comprises extreme shocks to study the role of historical events, taxation, asset price changes, portfolio heterogeneity in affecting the wealth distribution in the long run. Combining ...
2024| Thilo N. H. Albers, Charlotte Bartels, Moritz Schularick
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Diskussionspapiere 2104 / 2024
This study examines how student aid eligibility influences application decisions to higher education using administrative data from France. We study the impact of a change in income thresholds for aid eligibility. We find that aid eligibility did not have a uniform effect on students’ applications but varied by gender and academic performance. Highperforming male students shifted their First-Ranked ...
2024| Camille Remigereau, Clara Schäper
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Diskussionspapiere 2103 / 2024
A central assumption for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) models via heteroskedasticity is the time-invariance of the impact effects of the shocks. It is shown how that assumption can be tested when long-run restrictions are available for identifying structural shocks. The importance of performing such tests is illustrated by investigating the impact of fundamental shocks ...
2024| Martin Bruns, Helmut Lütkepohl
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Diskussionspapiere 2102 / 2024
This paper analyzes the distribution and composition of pre-tax national income in Germany since 1992, combining personal income tax returns, household survey data, and national accounts. Inequality rose from the 1990s to the late 2000s due to falling labor incomes among the bottom 50% and rising incomes in the top 10%. This trend reversed after 2007 as labor incomes across the bottom 90% increased. ...
2024| Stefan Bach, Charlotte Bartels, Theresa Neef
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Diskussionspapiere 2101 / 2024
Promoting fathers to take parental leave is seen as a promising way to advancegender equality. However, there is still a very limited understanding of its impact on fathers’ labor market outcomes. We conducted a correspondence study to analyze whether fathers who take parental leave face discrimination during the hiring process in three different occupations. Fathers who took parental leave in a female-dominated ...
2024| Julia Schmieder, Doris Weichselbaumer, Clara Welteke, Katharina Wrohlich
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Diskussionspapiere 2100 / 2024
Using a data-driven approach to identify structural vector autoregressive models, we examine key factors influencing the US dollar exchange rate across eight advanced economies from 1980 to 2022. We find that shocks to inflation expectations, which are closely tied to unfunded government transfer payments, have a pronounced effect on the US dollar’s value. This underscores the fiscal dimension of exchange ...
2024| Kerstin Bernoth, Helmut Herwartz, Lasse Trienens
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Diskussionspapiere 2099 / 2024
Child penalties in labour market outcomes are well-documented: after childbirth, mothers’ employment and earnings drop persistently compared to fathers. Beyond gender norms, a potential driver could be the loss in labour market skills due to mothers’ longer employment interruptions. This paper estimates child penalties in adult cognitive skills by adapting the pseudo-panel approach to a single cross-section ...
2024| Jonas Jessen, Lavinia Kinne, Michele Battisti