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Discussion Papers

About the Discussion Papers

The researchers at DIW Berlin usually publish their research results in scientific journals. However, this process can take many months, depending on the circumstances. To help bridge this gap, DIW Berlin began publishing Discussion Papers in 1989. The Discussion Papers offer a preview of the latest, not-yet-published research results, and allow current research to make its way into current debate more quickly.

Notes for authors

For publication in the series of DIW discussion papers the following may be submitted: Papers by DIW employees, DIW research professors and directors, DIW research affiliates and guest scientists who have spent at least one week at DIW Berlin and thank DIW Berlin in a footnote.    
Papers submitted will be sent in electronic form to the head of the relevant department at DIW Berlin. It is checked by an internal referee procedure whether or not the paper is likely to be published in a refereed journal. A decision on publication will then be made on the basis of a referee report. Should a paper have already been accepted for a publication by a refereed SSCI magazine or have received an invitation to a re-submission in a first-class journal, it will appear immediately without a referee procedure.

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2016 results, from 1
Diskussionspapiere 2013 / 2022

Discriminatory Auction Design for Renewable Energy

Designing auctions that favor low resource quality installations allows countries to geographically diversify their renewable energy production, while lowering payments to low-cost producers. In this paper, we develop a stylized model showing that a discriminatory auction design favoring low-wind-yield locations leads to a tradeoff between production costs and producer rent and that the scheme can ...

2022| Mats Kröger, Karsten Neuhoff, Jörn C. Richstein
Diskussionspapiere 2012 / 2022

Real Effects of Financial Market Integration: Evidence from an ECB Collateral Framework Change

This paper studies the effects of harmonizing collateral policy in a monetary union. In 2007, the European Central Bank replaced national collateral lists with a single list specifying which assets euro area banks can pledge as collateral. Banks holding newly eligible assets experience a reduction in their cost of funding and increase loan supply compared to banks without such assets. The effect is ...

2022| Pia Hüttl, Matthias Kaldorf
Diskussionspapiere 2011 / 2022

Nuclear Power in the Twenty-first Century (Part II) - The Economic Value of Plutonium

Although plutonium has been studied by different disciplines (such as technology and innovation studies, political sciences) since its discovery, back in 1940 at the University of California (Berkeley), the resource and environmental economic literature is still relatively scarce; neither does the energy economic literature on nuclear power consider plutonium specifically, e.g. Davis (2012) or Lévêque ...

2022| Christian von Hirschhausen
Diskussionspapiere 2010 / 2022

The Costs of Natural Gas Dependency: Price Shocks, Inequality, and Public Policy

Natural gas prices in Germany saw a strong increase at the end of 2021, subsequently worsening with the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, raising concerns about the distributional consequences. Our study shows that low-income households are affected the most by the natural gas price increase. Low-income households pay at the median 11.70 percent of their equivalent income on gas bills, ...

2022| Mats Kröger, Maximilian Longmuir, Karsten Neuhoff, Franziska Schütze
Diskussionspapiere 2009 / 2022

A Lasting Crisis Affects R&D Decisions of Smaller Firms: The Greek Experience

We use the prolonged Greek crisis as a case study to understand how a lasting economic shock affects the innovation strategies of firms in economies with moderate innovation activities. Adopting the 3-stage CDM model, we explore the link between R&D, innovation, and productivity for different size groups of Greek manufacturing firms during the prolonged crisis. At the first stage, we find that the ...

2022| Ioannis Giotopoulos, Alexander S. Kritikos, Aggelos Tsakanikas
Diskussionspapiere 2008 / 2022

Lessons from an Aborted Second-Generation Rent Control in Catalonia

This study investigates the effects of short-lived rent control regulations introduced in Catalonia in September 2020 and revoked in March 2022. Using the microdata of the largest Spanish housing advertisement portal idealista between January 2017 and May 2022, we analyze the dynamics of prices and supply for dwellings offered for rent and for sale. We also examine separately the rental and sales markets. ...

2022| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Fernando A. López, David Rey Blanco, Pelayo González Arbués
Diskussionspapiere 2007 / 2022

COVID-19 Lockdown Compliance, Financial Stress, and Acceleration in Technology Adoption in Rural Uganda

We examine the medium-term impact of COVID-19 for financial well-being and technology adoption in a low-income country. The analysis is based on regionally representative panel data consisting of 1,975 micro-entrepreneurs from rural Uganda. Using a LASSO approach, we first show that several business characteristics predict longer business shutdown due to COVID-19, including running a service business. ...

2022| Jana Hamdan, Yuanwei Xu
Diskussionspapiere 2006 / 2022

Heterogeneous Effects of After-School Care on Child Development

It is often argued that institutionalized after-school care (ASC) can benefit children lacking adequate homework support at home and, hence, foster equality of opportunity. However, despite considerable policy interest, it is unclear whether these afternoon programs are beneficial for child development and if selection into them is efficient, i.e., whether students benefiting most from the programs ...

2022| Laura Schmitz
Diskussionspapiere 2005 / 2022

Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions: Testing for Time-Varying Impulse Responses in the Presence of Multiple Proxies

We propose a test for time-varying impulse responses in heteroskedastic structural vector autoregressions that can be used when the shocks are identified by external proxy variables as a group. The test can be used even if the shocks are not identified individually. The asymptotic analysis is supported by small sample simulations which show good properties of the test. An investigation of the impact ...

2022| Martin Bruns, Helmut Lütkepohl
Diskussionspapiere 2004 / 2022

Durable Consumption, Limited VAT Pass-Through and Stabilization Effects of Temporary VAT Changes

This paper revives the question of whether a temporary VAT change is an adequate instrument for crisis stabilization. In empirical assessments, we find that durable goods consumption fluctuates strongly over the business cycle and that VAT rate changes affect durable goods in particular. Therefore, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is capable of addressing this major ...

2022| Marius Clemens, Werner Röger
Diskussionspapiere 2003 / 2022

Stranded Assets in the Coal Export Industry? The Case of the Australian Galilee Basin

Steam coal exporters face increasing uncertainty about future coal demand and risks of asset stranding. Nevertheless, new export-oriented coal mine projects are still brought forward. In this study, we use the coal sector model COALMOD-World to assess the economic prospects of investments in the export-oriented steam coal sector, and in particular of coal mines in the Galilee Basin, Australia. We parameterize ...

2022| Christian Hauenstein, Franziska Holz, Lennart Rathje, Thomas Mitterecker
Diskussionspapiere 2002 / 2022

Pandemic Depression: COVID-19 and the Mental Health of the Self-Employed

We investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-employed people’s mental health. Using representative longitudinal survey data from Germany, we reveal differential effects by gender: whereas self-employed women experienced a substantial deterioration in their mental health, self-employed men displayed no significant changes up to early 2021. Financial losses are important in explaining these ...

2022| Marco Caliendo, Daniel Graeber, Alexander S. Kritikos, Johannes Seebauer
Diskussionspapiere 2001 / 2022

The Gender Gap in Lifetime Earnings: The Role of Parenthood

To obtain a more complete understanding of the persisting gender earnings gap in Germany, this paper investigates both the cross-sectional and biographical dimension of gender inequalities. Using an Oaxaca Blinder decomposition, we show that the gender gap in annual earnings is largely driven by women’s lower work experience and intensive margin of labor supply. Based on a dynamic microsimulation model, ...

2022| Rick Glaubitz, Astrid Harnack-Eber, Miriam Wetter
Diskussionspapiere 2000 / 2022

How Communication Makes the Difference between a Cartel and Tacit Collusion: A Machine Learning Approach

This paper sheds new light on the role of communication for cartel formation. Using machine learning to evaluate free-form chat communication among firms in a laboratory experiment, we identify typical communication patterns for both explicit cartel formation and indirect attempts to collude tacitly. We document that firms are less likely to communicate explicitly about price fixing and more likely ...

2022| Maximilian Andres, Lisa Bruttel, Jana Friedrichsen
Diskussionspapiere 1999 / 2022

Forward to the Past: Short-Term Effects of the Rent Freeze in Berlin

In 2020, Berlin introduced a rigorous rent-control policy responding to soaring rents by setting a cap on rental prices: the Mietendeckel (rent freeze). The policy was revoked one year later by the German Constitutional Court. Although successful in reducing rents during its duration, the consequences for Berlin’s rental market and adjacent municipalities are not clear. In this paper we evaluate the ...

2022| Anja M. Hahn, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sofie R. Waltl, Marco Fongoni
Diskussionspapiere 1998 / 2022

Facebook Shadow Profiles

Data is often at the core of digital products and services, especially when related to online advertising. This has made data protection and privacy a major policy concern. When surfing the web, consumers leave digital traces that can be used to build user profiles and infer preferences. We quantify the extent to which Facebook can track web behavior outside of their own platform. The network of engagement ...

2022| Luis Aguiar, Christian Peukert, Maximilian Schäfer, Hannes Ullrich
Diskussionspapiere 1997 / 2022

Stimulating Housing Policy and Housing Tenure Choice: Evidence from the G7 Countries

Housing affordability is a hotly debated issue on global scale. A lack of affordable housing of decent quality is a chronic problem in urban areas. Governments try to alleviate it by stimulating homeownership among middle-income households and providing social housing for the low-income households. Such policies are very costly. Thus, this study aims to assess at least tentatively the effectiveness ...

2022| Eugeniya Malinskaya, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
Diskussionspapiere 1996 / 2022

The Effect of Social Comparison on Debt Taking: Experimental Evidence

A number of studies show that there is a link between social comparison and high levels of household debt. However, the exact mechanisms behind this link are not yet well understood. In this paper, we disentangle two mechanisms by performing a lab experiment designed to study the effects of social image concerns and peer information on consumption choices financed through debt taking. We find that ...

2022| Antonia Grohmann, Melanie Koch
Diskussionspapiere 1995 / 2022

A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model

We develop a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity and bounded rationality in the form of cognitive discounting. The interaction of household heterogeneity and bounded rationality generates amplification of monetary and fiscal policy through indirect general equilibrium effects while simultaneously ruling out the forward guidance puzzle and remaining stable at the effective lower bound. ...

2022| Oliver Pfäuti, Fabian Seyrich
Diskussionspapiere 1994 / 2022

House Price Expectations

This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale and rental offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the ...

2022| Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen, Felix Weinhardt
2016 results, from 1
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