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Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals

We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. ...

The Expansion of Natural Gas Infrastructure Puts Energy Transitions at Risk

Whether additional natural gas infrastructure is needed or would be detrimental to achieving climate protection goals is currently highly controversial. Here we combine five perspectives to argue why expansion of the natural gas infrastructure hinders a renewable energy future and is no bridge technology. We highlight that natural gas is a fossil fuel with a significantly underestimated climate impact ...

The Influence of Start-up Motivation on Entrepreneurial Performance

Predicting entrepreneurial development based on individual and business-related characteristics is a key objective of entrepreneurship research. In this context, we investigate whether the motives of becoming an entrepreneur influence the subsequent entrepreneurial development. In our analysis, we examine a broad range of business outcomes including survival and income, as well as job creation, expansion ...

Drivers of residential energy use for heating and cooling and thermal retrofit decisions

Energy consumption for household heating is capturing increasing attention. In the short-term, gas – and thus heat–saving has become a core policy objective in the current energy crisis. Only if households save sufficient gas will it be possible to avoid curtailment of industrial energy gas demand. Gas savings will also reduce scarcity on the markets, and thus is an important element to mitigate...

Do Words Hurt More than Actions? The Impact of Trade Tensions on Financial Markets

We use machine learning techniques to quantify trade tensions between the United States and China. Our measure matches well-known events in the US-China trade dispute and is exogenous to the developments on global financial markets. Local projections show that rising trade tensions leave US markets largely unaffected, except for firms that are more exposed to China, while negatively impacting stock ...

Carbon Contracts for Difference: An Assessment of Selected Socio-economic Impacts for Germany

Age-specific Effects of Early Daycare on Children's Health

Over the past decades, the share of very young children in daycare has increased significantly in many OECD countries, including Germany. Despite the relevance of child health for child development and later life success, the effect of early daycare attendance on health has received little attention in the economic literature. In this study, I investigate the impact of a large daycare expansion in ...

Learn to use the SOEP over Lunch

The German Socio-Economic Panel Study is a representative panel study for the German population, collecting data on a broad variety of topics of everyday life, including general wellbeing, household composition, educational aspirations and educational status, income and occupational biographies, leisure time activities, housing, health, political orientation and more. With its long running panel...

How have you found your job? Effects of the job search channels on labour market outcomes in Germany

The most popular method to acquire a job is to use one's circle of acquaintances or social networks to find a position. However, in the current research, there is still no clear conclusion if this job search method has positive implications for different job outcomes such as wages. This paper studies the effects of this job search approach in the context of Germany compared to the formal...

Ampel-Monitor Energiewende: der Stand der Dinge nach einem Jahr Ampel-Koalition