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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 57 / 2011
This paper, investigates the effect war and terrorism, have on the covariance between oil prices and the indices of four major stock markets - the American S&P500 and the European DAX, CAC40 and FTSE100 - using nonlinear BEKK-GARCH type models. Findings reported herein indicate that the covariance between stock and oil returns is affected by war. A tentative explanation is that the two wars examined ...
2011| Christos Kollias, Catherine Kyrtsou, Stephanos Papadamou
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 56 / 2011
This paper investigates the relationship between linguistic polarization and conflict in the Basque Country. During the 40 years of Franco's dictatorship the use of the Basque language was banned. Therefore, there may be some linguistic roots underlying the conflict in the Basque Country. We show that at the municipality level, linguistic polarization reduces the level of conflict. This finding is ...
2011| Javier Gardeazabal
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 55 / 2011
The fight against terrorism, in particular of Islamist nature, has become a focus area of foreign and security policies in Western countries and around the world. This substantial effort is however only to a limited extent matched by adequate evaluations as to its actual success. This paper offers an overview of the counterterrorism effectiveness literature in terms of main areas of interest, conceptualisation ...
2011| Eric van Um, Daniela Pisoiu
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 54 / 2011
Naval counter-piracy measures off Somalia have failed to change the incentives for pirates, raising calls for land-based approaches that may involve replacing piracy as a source of income. This paper evaluates the effects of piracy on the Somali economy to establish which (domestic) groups benefit from ransom monies. Given the paucity of economic data on Somalia, we evaluate province-level market data, ...
2011| Anja Shortland
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 53 / 2011
Until 2008, the growth of the world economy was quite strong and improved the economic well-being all over the globe, but this development was also accompanied by some risks. One of them is transnational crime, which has shown a remarkable increase in the last 20 years3. This raises the following two questions: (1) How is transnational crime financed, and what do we know about this financing? (2) What ...
2011| Friedrich Schneider
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 52 / 2011
The financial means of international terror and transnational organized crime organizations are analyzed. First, some short remarks about the organization of international terror organizations are made. Second and in a much more detailed way a literature review is provided about the financing of terrorist and transnational organized crime organizations, their sources and the various methods they use. ...
2011| Friedrich Schneider, Raul Caruso
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 51 / 2011
European Union policy to counter terrorist financing is marked by uncertainty about causes and consequences. The paper addresses the role of evaluations of the effectiveness and efficiency of counter terrorist financing policies performed by international standard setting organizations in such a policy environment. It is found that assessments of effectiveness have shaped counter terrorist financing, ...
2011| Michael Brzoska
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 50 / 2011
This paper provides a first study on use of professional peer reviews by the EU to strengthen the European fight against terrorism. The first part outlines two theoretical approaches to assessing the outcome effectiveness of such peer reviews, namely compliance and learning. Peer reviews can serve both ends and have been increasingly touted as an effective tool to address transnational threats. The ...
2011| Raphael Bossong
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 49 / 2011
We address the pitfalls of averaging by exploiting the longitudinal variation in aid to identify sudden and sharp increases in aid flows. Focusing on specific events, we test if aid accelerations correspond to policies and shocks in the recipient country. For a large sample of 145 recipient countries and 33 donors from 1960- 2007, we find that positive regime changes and wars are significant predictors ...
2011| Tilman Brück, Guo Xu
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 48 / 2011
Based on a trivariate panel VAR and utilizing Generalized Impulse Responses, we explored the dynamic impacts of terrorism and crime risks on public order and safety spending across European countries during the period 1994-2006. Our findings suggest that both a shock in terrorism risk or in crime, significantly increase the subsequent trajectory of public order and safety spending. As a by-product ...
2011| Konstantinos Drakos, Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou