Would a Flat-Rate Tax Stimulate Entrepreneurship in Germany? A Behavioural Microsimulation Analysis Allowing for Risk

Abstract

When potential income tax reforms are debated, the suspected impact on entrepreneurship is often used as an argument in favour of or against a certain policy. Quantitative ex-ante evaluations of the effect of certain tax reform options on entrepreneurship are very rare, however. This paper estimates the ex-ante effects of the German tax reform 2000 and of two hypothetical flat-rate tax scenarios on entries into and exits out of self-employment based on a structural microsimulation model with econometrically estimated transition rates under risk. The simulation results indicate that flatter tax systems do not encourage people to choose self-employment, but rather discourage them from doing so. This is explained by the reduction of entrepreneurs' income risk through progressive taxation.