DIW Weekly Report

Ganzes Heft

Refugees Are Feeling Increasingly Unwelcome and Perceiving Discrimination in the Labor and Housing Markets

The sentiment among refugees in Germany has changed significantly: Using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data from 2016 to 2023, it can be seen that refugees have been feeling increasingly unwelcome since 2018, while their concerns about xenophobia have grown since 2019. In addition, cross-sectional data from 2022 refugees’ subjective experiences of discrimination in the workplace and when searching for ...

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Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Currency Competition but US Dollar and Euro Remain Hard to Displace

Geopolitical frictions and high levels of uncertainty in US policy are driving countries to reduce dependence on the US dollar and implement new policies to promote their own currencies for settling cross-border trade. This Weekly Report analyzes the reactions of firms to such measures, focusing on China’s efforts to promote the renminbi globally. Leveraging detailed French customs data, the findings ...

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Social and Regional Inequalities in the Sense of Safety in Germany

The public’s perceived sense of safety influences many domains in significant ways: It impacts individual behavior, life quality, consumption behavior, and even political views as well as government action. Using data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and the German Federal Government’s 2024 Gleichwertigkeitsbericht (Equivalence Report), the development as well as the regional and social distribution ...

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The Boomer Solidarity Surcharge: An Important Tool for Stabilizing Pensions Without Directly Burdening Younger Generations

As the baby boomer generation enters retirement, the payas- you-go pension system in Germany is under an increasing amount of pressure. Relevant changes, in particular higher contribution rates or lower pension levels, are causing tension between generations: Either the financial burden on the younger generations is increased or the risk of insufficient pensions and old-age poverty for the elderly ...

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Regional Climate Dividend Provides Relief to Rural Households, but Hardship Cases Remain

The previous federal government coalition had planned to pay private households a climate dividend to offset rising carbon prices; a payout process was even prepared. However, the climate dividend is nowhere to be seen in the new federal government’s coalition agreement. In the long term, a social compensation mechanism will be important, as prices for fossil and heating fuels will continue to rise ...

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Active Pension Mainly Relieves Higher-Earning Pensioners; Employment Effects Are Uncertain

The new German federal government coalition is planning a significant tax break for workers of retirement age: the active pension (Aktivrente). With the active pension, workers who have reached the statutory retirement age may earn up to 2,000 euros a month tax-free, a move that the government is hoping will motivate more pensioners to work longer to counteract the skilled worker shortage. Microsimulation ...

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Tariff Chaos Overshadowing the Global Economy; Fiscal Package Bolstering the German Economy

Despite a strong start to 2025, the German economy will experience middling growth for the time being before beginning a long-awaited upturn at the end of the year. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates growth of 0.3 percent for 2025 and of 1.7 percent for 2026; thus, DIW Berlin is increasing its forecast significantly. Expansionary fiscal policy is counteracting the effects of higher tariffs. From 2026 ...

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Non-monetary Factors Were an Important Driver of Residential Energy Savings during the Energy Crisis

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered an energy crisis in Germany, with consumer energy prices skyrocketing over the course of the year. Due to concerns about gas shortages, various programs aimed at reducing consumption were set up and the German Federal Government and numerous organizations appealed to consumers to save as much energy as possible. This Weekly Report investigates how much ...

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Gender Pay Gap Increases with Age among All Educational Backgrounds

The average gender pay gap in Germany is 16 percent according to the most recent data. On the occasion of the 2025 Equal Pay Day, this Weekly Report using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data shows that considerable differences according to age and level of education are hiding behind this average gap. For example, the gender pay gap increases significantly with age for people of all educational backgrounds ...

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Analyzing ECB Communications Improves Forecasting of Interest Rate Decisions

For central banks, official communications serve as essential monetary policy instruments: In press releases, speeches, and interviews, central banks explain their decisions, manage expectations, and promote confidence in their strategy. This Weekly Report analyzes European Central Bank (ECB) communications from January 2019 to March 2025 using a specially trained artificial intelligence (AI) text ...