Publikationen Prognose und Konjunkturpolitik

Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung

Konsum tendenziell weiter steigend: der private Verbrauch in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland im dritten Quartal 1988

German Economy on the Upswing - Global Economy Continues to Grow Moderately

After three years of subdued economic activity, the German economy is on the road to recovery. While the Iran war and erratic U.S. trade policy are weighing on growth, their impact is only moderate. Although the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that U.S. tariffs are unlawful, this does not change the tariff rates imposed on German exports, as the agreement with the European Union is assumed to remain in ...

German Economy in the Starting Blocks—Global Economy Holds Its Own

The German economy has stabilized in the current year and is looking ahead to a fiscal policy-supported upturn starting next year. Since the fall, an expansion in public demand has been providing important economic impetus. The private sector, on the other hand, has so far been more subdued. Trade policy uncertainties, high production costs, and structural weaknesses are causing particular concern ...

German Economy Poised for Upturn Thanks to Fiscal Package; Uncertainties in the Global Economy

The German economy is slowly emerging from its trough. After a bumpy start to the year, which was marked by tariff-related special effects, growth in 2025 remains subdued at 0.2 percent. However, the economy is gradually picking up speed from the current third quarter onwards. Over the next two years, this will translate into noticeable economic growth of 1.7 and 1.8 percent annually, respectively. ...

Tariff Chaos Overshadowing the Global Economy; Fiscal Package Bolstering the German Economy

Despite a strong start to 2025, the German economy will experience middling growth for the time being before beginning a long-awaited upturn at the end of the year. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates growth of 0.3 percent for 2025 and of 1.7 percent for 2026; thus, DIW Berlin is increasing its forecast significantly. Expansionary fiscal policy is counteracting the effects of higher tariffs. From 2026 ...

Policy Changes Leaving Marks on the Economy

The German economy is stuck in a period of stagnation: Following two years of consecutive slight declines in GDP, growth is not expected for 2025 either. Weak exports, rising unemployment worries, and the resulting reserved private consumption and economic policy uncertainty are slowing the economy. Structural adjustment processes and the erratic trade policy of the Trump administration are weighing ...

DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: German Economy Stuck in Limbo While Trade Conflicts Threaten the Global Economy

The German economy is stuck in a difficult position as it faces both slow growth as well as structural change. The continuing lack of orders in manufacturing, increasing international competition, and sluggish development in industry-related services are now affecting the labor market and leading not only to short-time work but to layoffs too, despite the continuing skilled worker shortage. While GDP ...

DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Industry Sputtering Globally while the German Economy Stagnates

The German economy continues to stagnate. After it appeared to finally be growing at the start of 2024, it experienced a slight setback in the second quarter. Although incomes are rising and inflation is now near the two-percent target, people in Germany are saving their money. As investments and exports faltered due to the sluggish industrial sector, the upturn has been delayed for the time being. ...

DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Global Economy Recovering Swiftly; German Economy Gaining Momentum

The German economy began recovering at the beginning of 2024 and has developed better than initially expected. A sharp rise in construction investment, albeit more of a flash in the pan as a result of mild winter weather, along with strong goods exports helped the economy onto its recov¬ery path and masked the disappointing development of private consumption, which sank unexpectedly. However, consumer ...