Publikationen Prognose und Konjunkturpolitik

Gigabit Access: Germany Lags behind in International Comparison but Demand Is Low

Broadband internet expansion is a topic of widespread discussion in Germany right now. But the country still has not met its own targets. Almost 100 percent of households are supplied with broadband connections with up to six megabits per second, yet Germany has lots of room to catch up when it comes to gigabit-capable connections—particularly in sparsely populated regions. On the demand side, copper ...

German Economy: Slowdown in Sight

Compared to last year, the German economy is weakening noticeably. Orders from abroad are decreasing and domestic companies are holding back on investments. However, capacity utilization remains high—also because the government will boost the incomes of private households next year. However, above all, incomes are rising noticeably due to the positive situation in the labor market: the unemployment ...

The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Increased Uncertainty Is Dampening Growth

The political conditions for growth are currently dominated by increased uncertainty; this is particularly weighing on investment activity and slowing down the global economy. DIW Berlin is lowering its forecast slightly for this year and the next to 4.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. However, global expansion appears to remain intact. In developed economies, primarily the good labor market ...

The German Economy Is Slowing down Somewhat: Editorial

A Stabilization Fund Can Make the Euro Area More Crisis-Proof

Reorganizing European fiscal policy is a main topic in current reform considerations. In particular, the creation of a European stabilization mechanism is being discussed. This study examines the macroeconomic effects of a stabilization fund, the economic consequences of which are analyzed in an equilibrium model. The model shows that a stabilization fund reduces economic fluctuations and is thus a ...

Social Services: A Rapidly Growing Economic Sector

The social services sector has experienced growth at a far above-average pace in the past, and employment has even accelerated since the middle of the past decade. This is due to a strong increase in demand for this sector's services as a result of an aging society and from increasing tasks to solve problems in families. The influx of refugees has also affected demand. Almost everywhere in the EU, ...

Household Consumption and Savings Rate Depend Strongly on Employment Status, Income, and Age

On what and to what extent private households in Germany spend money varies significantly depending on employment status, income, and age. As this study based on the most current official sample survey of income and expenditure from 2013 shows, unemployed households on average spend over half of their income on basic needs such as living and food expenses while unemployed people living alone spend ...

German and Euro Area Economies Will Benefit from a U.S. Interest Rate Hike in the Short Term

To accompany the economic upturn in the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank has been raising its benchmark interest rate incrementally. In an increasingly globalized world in which the American economy plays a key role, an action like this has spillover effects on the international level. Based on a dynamic factor model, the present study shows that the member states of the euro area—Germany in particular—can ...

New Government’s Policies Give the Thriving German Economy an Additional Boost

The German economy will grow by 2.4 percent this year, especially due to strong foreign demand. Brisk investment activity continues in this economic climate; stimulus from foreign trade, however, is weakening somewhat. Despite strong consumer demand in the coming quarters, employment and economic output growth are losing momentum. However, stimulus measures from the new federal government will increase ...

The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Expansion Continues but Is Losing Momentum

The global economy is likely to grow by over four percent this year and somewhat less next year. DIW Berlin has slightly raised its forecast for both years. Developed economies as well as emerging markets are experiencing an upturn; however, growth rates are likely to be slightly lower in the future. One reason for the sound global economy is the fact that the labor market situation is steadily improving, ...