Publikationen Prognose und Konjunkturpolitik

Panel Seasonal Unit Root Test: Further Simulation Results and an Application to Unemployment Data

Measuring and Predicting Turning Points Using a Dynamic Bi-Factor Model

In this paper a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov-switching is developed to measure and predict turning points. Both common factors, namely composite leading index (CLI) and composite coincident index (CCI) respectively, have their own cyclical dynamics, and their lead-lag relationships are reflected in the transition probabilities matrix. The model is applied to four coincident and four selected ...

The Welfare State, Thresholds, and Economic Growth

Can a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an economy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are nonlinearly related and jointly endogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over the period 1950-2001, we find that the structural decline in growth rates that several welfare state economies ...

Private Savings and Transition: Dynamic Panel Data Evidence from Accession Countries

After the collapse in the early transition years, saving rates in Eastern European EU-accession countries have recovered strongly. But is private saving in these countries now driven by the same forces as in the EU? A GMM estimator is applied to analyze the determinants of private saving in both country groups. The main results are: saving rates are rather persistent; income growth increases saving, ...

Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany

Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching models were taken into consideration. The overall results indicate that the interest rate spread, the real ...

What Is behind the Real Appreciation of the Accession Countries' Currencies? An Investigation of the PPI Based Real Exchange Rate

In the paper, we calculate real equilibrium exchange rates (EER) for EU accession countries and compare these with the actual exchange rate movements since the mid-1990s. The real equilibrium exchange rates are derived from models of macroeconomic balance and tested for econometrically. It is found that productivity increases can be regarded as one source of the observed PPI-based real appreciation ...

Assessing Leading Indicators for the EMU Area from a Practitioner's Perspective

In this paper, the empirical relevance of the credit channel for the explanation of monetary policy transmission in Germany during the period from 1985 to 1998 is analyzed. While existing studies of the credit channel rely mostly on the analysis of monetary policy effects on balance sheet items, both quantities and financing costs are considered here. Using vector autoregressive models, impulse response ...

Stability Criteria and Convergence: The Role of the System of National Accounts for Fiscal Policy in Europe

An Approach for Timely Estimations of the German GDP

The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or Reality?

This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in nine Central and East European countries. Using panel cointegration techniques, we find that the productivity growth differential in the open sector leads to inflation in non-tradable goods. Because of the low share of non-tradables and the high share of food items in addition to regulated prices, the consumer price index is misleading when analyzing ...