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DIW Discussion Papers 1721 / 2018
We study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber, using quarterly data for a large panel of countries. To overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises, we propose to study large natural disasters. We find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks. It lowers inflation, raises output growth, ...
2018| Marcel Fratzscher, Christoph Grosse Steffen, Malte Rieth
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DIW Discussion Papers 1707 / 2017
In order to identify structural shocks that affect economic variables, restrictions need to be imposed on the parameters of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. Economic theory is the primary source of such restrictions. However, only over-identifying restrictions can be tested with statistical methods which limits the statistical validation of many just-identified SVAR models. In this study, ...
2017| Helmut Lütkepohl, Tomasz Woźniak
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DIW Discussion Papers 1688 / 2017
As from a political economy perspective, politicians often fail to implement structural reforms, we investigate if the resistance to reform is based on the differences in the risk preferences of voters, politicians, and bureaucrats. Based on the empirical results of a survey of the population in Germany, 175 members of the Federal German Parliament (Bundestag), and 106 officials (“bureaucrats”) from ...
2017| Tobias Thomas, Moritz Heß, Gert G. Wagner
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DIW Discussion Papers 1683 / 2017
We address the question of whether media influences occupational choices. To theoretically examine media effects, we construct a dynamic Bayesian occupational choice model with sequential decisions under ambiguity due to imperfect information. We show that sufficiently intensive positive media articles and reports about entrepreneurship increase the probability of self-employment and decrease the probability ...
2017| Alexander Konon, Alexander Kritikos
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DIW Discussion Papers 1672 / 2017
The performance of information criteria and tests for residual heteroskedasticity for choosing between different models for time-varying volatility in the context of structural vector autoregressive analysis is investigated. Although it can be difficult to find the true volatility model with the selection criteria, using them is recommended because they can reduce the mean squared error of impulse ...
2017| Helmut Lütkepohl, Thore Schlaak
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DIW Discussion Papers 1671 / 2017
We investigate how worries in Germany change across time and age, drawing on both closed-ended questions (which typically list a number of worry items) and open-ended questions answered in text format. We find that relevant world events influence worries. For example, worries about peace peaked in 2003, the year of the Iraq War, with a considerable number of respondents also referring to the Iraq war ...
2017| Julia M. Rohrer, Martin Bruemmer, Jürgen Schupp, Gert G. Wagner
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DIW Discussion Papers 1662 / 2017
This paper addresses the behavioral puzzle of women’s preference for competition when competitors are also women. Using a framed field experiment with 883 non-standard subjects, we show that none of the determinants of competitive behavior in general, including ability, self-confidence and risk aversion, provide a satisfying explanation for women’s substantive gender-related selection into competition. ...
2017| Norma Burow, Miriam Beblo, Denis Beninger, Melanie Schröder
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DIW Discussion Papers 1658 / 2017
Changing employment conditions lead to new chances, but also new risks for employees. In the literature, increasing permeability between occupational and private life is discussed as one special outcome of this development that employees must face, especially those in highly qualified positions. Drawing on existing research, we investigate in how far women and men in those positions differ in their ...
2017| Anne Busch-Heizmann, Elke Holst
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DIW Discussion Papers 1657 / 2017
Social norms and attitudes towards gender roles have been shown to have a large effect on economic outcomes of men and women. Many countries have introduced policies that aim at changing gender stereotypes, for example fathers’ quota in parental leave schemes. In this paper, we analyze whether the introduction of the fathers’ quota in Germany in 2007, that caused a sharp increase in the take-up of ...
2017| Ulrike Unterhofer, Katharina Wrohlich
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DIW Discussion Papers 1642 / 2017
There is evidence that estimates of long-run impulse responses of structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models based on long-run identifying restrictions may not be very accurate. This finding suggests that using short-run identifying restrictions may be preferable. We compare structural VAR impulse response estimates based on long-run and short-run identifying restrictions and find that long-run ...
2017| Helmut Lütkepohl, Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, Peter Winker