Thema Finanzmärkte

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross-section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years, alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...

A Statistical Comparison of Alternative Identification Schemes for Monetary Policy Shocks

Financial Development and Employment: Evidence from Transition Countries

This paper studies the association between a country’s level of financial development and firms’ employment growth. We employ an incomplete contract model for evaluating this association. The model proposes that a high level of financial development affects the employment of firms with low managerial capital negatively, while firms with high managerial capital benefit from a more developed financial ...

Impact of Renewable Energy Act Reform on Wind Project Finance

The 2014 reform of the German Renewable Energy Act introduces a mandatory shift from a fixed feed-in tariff to a floating premium system. This is envisaged to create additional incentives for project developers, but also impacts revenues and costs for new investments in wind generation. Thus uncertainties for example about balancing costs and the impact of the location specific generation profile on ...

Finanzsektor: Verbesserungen beim Frauenanteil in Spitzengremien allenfalls in Trippelschritten

Im Finanzsektor kamen im vergangenen Jahr mehr Frauen in die Vorstände großer Kreditinstitute. Ihr Anteil bei Banken und Sparkassen lag Ende 2013 bei gut sechs Prozent, was einem Plus von knapp zwei Prozentpunkten gegenüber dem Vorjahr entspricht. Dieser Anstieg ist vor allem auf Veränderungen bei den privaten Geldhäusern und den Genossenschaftsbanken zurückzuführen. In den öffentlich-rechtlichen Banken ...

Finanzielle Fragmentierung: Wie lässt sich die Abhängigkeit der Kreditrisiken im Banken- und Staatssektor reduzieren?

Institutional Determinants of Financial Development in MENA Countries

Developed and well regulated financial markets are usually seen as a precondition for an efficient allocation of resources and can foster long term economic growth. This paper explores the institutional determinants for financial development in the countries of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Institutional conditions are from the International Country Risk Guide. Paneleconometric techniques ...

Uncertainty of Macroeconomic Forecasters and the Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles

We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty — approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts — to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods are determined and subjected to panel logit regressions conditioning on macroeconomic indicators and expectation ...

Vor dem Stresstest: Staaten retten die Banken – wieder einmal: Kommentar

Finanzmarktrisiken, Inflation und Geldpolitik

Vortrag: Marcel Fratzscher, Ph.D.Kommentar: Dr. Ursula WeidenfeldModeration: Dr. Ferdinand Fichtner, DIW Berlin Marcel Fratzscher, Ph.D. war von 2001 bis 2012 bei der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) in Frankfurt am Main tätig, seit 2008 als Leiter der Abteilung International Policy Analysis. Zum 1. Februar 2013 übernimmt er den Vorstandsvorsitz des DIW Berlin und wird Professor f...