Within a wide range of other economic and financial indicators, money is highly relevant to the two-pillar monetary strategy of the European Central Bank for detecting risks to price stability over the medium term. Money demand models are a natural benchmark for assessing monetary developments. The existence of a well-specified and stable relation between money and prices can be perceived as a prerequisite ...
We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target ...
In this study we have addressed the relationship between the stock market, the measure of real economic activity (represented by the real GDP), the economic sentiment indicator, and real interest rate for the five European countries: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK. We find that even when accounting for expectations, represented by the economic sentiment indicator, the stock market ...
Using data from Germany this paper examines the direct effect of non-financial firms' use of short-term versus long-term liabilities. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts that profitability of the firm will change if firms alter their use of short-term versus long-term liabilities. We find that firms that rely more heavily on short-term liabilities are ...
Our study investigates the link between bank lending behavior and macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a dynamic model of a bank's value maximization that results in a negative relationship between loan to capital ratio and macroeconomic uncertainty. This proposition is tested using a panel of Ukrainian banks collected from NBU and covering the period 2003q1-2005q3. The results indicate that banks ...
Foreign exchange rate expectations play a central role in virtually all monetary models for the open economy. Therefore, it is extremely important to gain empirical insights into the expectations formation process. In this paper, we use a unique disaggregated data set to model the expectations of the Yen/USD exchange rate of about 50 leading foreign exchange rate professionals. The survey includes ...
