Externe referierte Aufsätze

Myopic Governments and Welfare-Enhancing Debt Limits

This paper studies welfare effects of a soft borrowing constraint on sovereign debt. The constraint is modeled as a proportional fine per unit of debt in excess of a specified reference value, resembling features of the Stability and Growth Pact. Sovereign debt is the result of myopic fiscal policy. It reduces welfare in the absence of lump-sum taxes. The paper shows that the borrowing constraint enhances ...

A Retrospective Merger Analysis in the U.K. Videogame Market

We study the effect of a merger in a dynamic high-technology industry—the videogame market—which is characterized by the frequent introduction of new products. To assess the impact of the merger between two large specialist retailers in the United Kingdom—Game Group PLC and Games Station Limited—we perform a difference-in-differences analysis comparing the price evolution of the merging parties with ...

Regional Entrepreneurial Opportunities in the Biotech Industry: Exploring the Transition from Award-Winning Nascent Entrepreneurs to Real Start-Ups

Knowledge of factors that determine the transition from nascent entrepreneurship to real entrepreneurship is of major importance for policies aiming to stimulate start-ups effectively. Scholars have concentrated mainly on person-specific factors to explain transition probabilities, and environmental characteristics have been relatively neglected. Given that entrepreneurship is a strongly localized ...

Empirical Welfare Analysis with Preference Heterogeneity

We apply recently proposed individual welfare measures in the context of preference heterogeneity, derived from structural labour supply models. Contrary to the standard practice of using reference preferences and wages, these measures preserve preference heterogeneity in the normative step of the analysis. They also make the ethical priors, implicit in any interpersonal comparison, more explicit. ...

Unemployment and Portfolio Choice: Does Persistence Matter?

Households can rely on private savings or on public unemployment insurance to hedge against the risk of becoming unemployed. These hedging mechanisms are used differently across countries. In this paper, we use a life cycle model to study the effects of unemployment on the portfolio choice of households in the US and in Germany. We distinguish short- and long-term unemployment and find that, in case ...

Do Wealthier Households Save More? The Impact of the Demographic Factor

This paper investigates the relationship between wealth, ageing and saving behaviour of private households by using pooled cross sections of German consumption survey data. Different components of wealth are distinguished, as their impact on the savings rate is not homogeneous. On average, the effect attributed to real estate dominates the other components of wealth. In addition, the savings rate strongly ...

Does the Economic Integration of China Affect Growth and Inflation in Industrial Countries?

The Chinese economic development affects GDP growth and inflation in the advanced countries. The size of the effects is inferred from multivariate time series and structural econometric methods. In particular, the GVAR and the NiGEM are employed to examine the interdependencies between the business cycles in China and industrial countries, including the US, the euro area and Japan. Evidence is based ...

Dispersed Communication by Central Bank Committees and the Predictability of Monetary Policy Decisions

The paper asks whether members of central bank decision-making committees should communicate with the public in a collegial manner, by conveying the consensus or majority view of the committee, or in an individualistic way, by providing the diversity of views among the committee members. It finds that more active as well as more consistent communication by committee members improves the predictability ...

The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries' fundamentals and fundamentals contagion - a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals - are the main explanations for the rise in sovereign yield spreads and CDS spreads during the crisis, not only for ...

The Perfect Finance Minister: Whom to Appoint as Finance Minister to Balance the Budget

The role and influence of the finance minister within the cabinet are discussed with increasing prominence in the theoretical literature on the political economy of budget deficits. It is generally assumed that the spending ministers can enhance their reputation purely with new or more extensive expenditure programs, whereas it is the sole interest of the finance minister to balance the budget. Using ...

Money Demand and the Role of Monetary Indicators in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performances of a broad monetary aggregate (M3), excess liquidity and excess inflation in predicting euro area inflation. The out-of sample forecasting performances are compared to a widely used alternative, the spread of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand, even when observations ...

A Post-2020 EU Energy Technology Policy: Revisiting the Strategic Energy Technology Plan

With the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET Plan) expiring in 2020, the EU needs to revisit its energy technology policy for the post-2020 horizon and to establish a policy framework that fosters the achievement of ambitious EU commitments for decarbonization by 2050. We discuss options for a post-2020 EU energy technology policy, taking account of uncertain technology developments, uncertain ...

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Private Equity Investment: A European Comparison

A strong private equity (PE) market is a cornerstone for commercialization and innovation in modern economies. However, substantial differences exist in the relative amounts raised and invested in PE across European countries. We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of PE investment in Europe, focusing on the comparison between Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European countries. ...

The Cyclicality of Automatic and Discretionary Fiscal Policy: What Can Real-Time Data Tell Us?

This paper develops a new methodology for estimating both the automatic and discretionary components of fiscal policy in one reaction function using the differences between real-time and ex post data. Discretionary policy should respond to information available to the policy maker at the time (real-time data), whereas automatic fiscal policy should respond to the true state of the economy at the time ...

Paneldaten in der Soziologie: Fixed Effects Paradigma und empirische Praxis in Panelregression und Ereignisanalyse

In der soziologischen Methodenforschung werden Paneldaten als Instrument diskutiert, welches eine fundiertere Überprüfung einer kausalen Hypothese als Querschnittsdaten ermöglicht. Zur Realisierung dieses Potenzials ist allerdings die Isolierung intraindividueller Zusammenhänge im Rahmen der Schätzprozedur notwendig. Bei multivariaten Regressionsanalysen leistet dies die Fixed Effects Regression, welche ...

Italy's Fiscal Crisis

Italy is presently one of the most vulnerable economies in the eurozone. Over the past twenty years it has failed to adapt to increasing global competition and its public finances have deteriorated dramatically. Even with huge fiscal support from the other members of the eurozone, Italy’s perspectives look rather bleak. How did this situation come about? Did Italy’s EMU membership make things wors ...

Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

Motivated by the Bayesian framework, we explore terrorism risk perception differences across European countries. Perception variation is explained by the long-term terrorism countries face, while the cyclical part of terrorism does not seem to play any role.

Trends in Economic Research: An International Perspective

Given the recent efforts in several countries to reorganize the research institutional setting to improve research productivity, our analysis addresses the following questions: To which extent has the recent awareness over international quality standards in economics around the world been reflected in research performance? How have individual countries fared? Do research quantity and quality indicators ...

A Structural Approach to Estimating the Effect of Taxation on the Labour Market Dynamics of Older Workers

We estimate a dynamic structural life-cycle model of employment, non-employment and retirement that includes endogenous accumulation of human capital and intertemporal non-separabilities in preferences. In addition, the model accounts for the effects of income tax, social security contributions and the transfer system on work incentives. The structural parameter estimates are used to evaluate the employment ...

Existenzgründungsförderung in Deutschland: Zwischenergebnisse aus der Hartz-Evaluation