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Nonadditivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals

We examine the additivity of expectations over different time intervals. For example, when asked about 10-year stock price growth, survey respondents report an expected change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same 10 years. Such subadditivity, which we also find in expectations for other economic variables, is ...

Composition of Core Modules and Item Allocation in Split Questionnaire Designs: Impact on Estimates from Imputed Data

An increasing number of social science surveys use split questionnaire designs to reduce questionnaire length, presenting only a subset of several questionnaire modules to each respondent while leaving out others. This approach results in large amounts of planned missing data that necessitates imputation. Research shows that imputation is most effective when each module covers various topics. Yet, ...

Support for Everyone or Selection of Some? Self-Selection and Assignment Into a Large-Scale Refugee Mentoring Program in Germany

Mentoring has become a popular support strategy for recently arrived immigrants and refugees, offering access to valuable information and resources. However, little is known about selection processes into mentoring programs—who chooses to enrol, who receives support, and whether these patterns are systematic. Such selection affects not only program evaluations but also broader issues of refugee integration ...

Education Bias in Probability-Based Surveys in Germany: Evidence and Possible Solutions

This paper outlines two studies on education bias in German probability-based surveys. Study 1 reviews data from 67 surveys across 19 survey programs conducted in Germany from 2000 to 2023. We found a consistent underrepresentation of individuals with a low level of formal education. We also found that the transition to self-administered modes due to rising survey costs may exacerbate this bias in ...

The Macro-Economic Effects of a European Deposit (Re-)Insurance Scheme

Recent proposals for a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) favor a reinsurance framework. In this paper, we use a regime-switching open economy DSGE model with bank defaults to assess the relative efficiency of such a scheme. We find that reinsurance by EDIS is more effective in stabilizing real activity, credit, and welfare than a national fiscal backstop. We demonstrate that risk-weighted contributions ...

Provider Effects in Antibiotic Prescribing: Evidence from Physician Exits

In the fight against antibiotic resistance, reducing antibiotic consumption while preserving healthcare quality presents a critical health policy challenge. We investigate the role of practice styles in patients’ antibiotic intake using exogenous variation in patient-physician assignment. Practice style heterogeneity explains 49% of the differences in overall antibiotic use and 83% of the differences ...

Is There a Desired Added Worker Effect? Evidence from Involuntary Job Losses

While the existing evidence on added worker effects is mixed, most studies find no or only small effects. However, studies to date have mostly analyzed individuals’ actual labor supply responses to their partners’ job loss, neglecting to consider a potential mismatch between desired and actual labor supply adjustments. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we study individuals’ changes ...

The Early Bird Gets the Germs? The Impact of Early Daycare Attendance on Children’s Health

In recent decades, the share of very young children in daycare has significantly increased in many OECD countries, including Germany. Despite the critical role of child health in development and later life success, the impact of early daycare attendance on health has received little attention in the economic literature. This study examines the effects of a substantial daycare expansion in Germany on ...

Split Between Accelerationists, Pivoters, and the Unwavering: CEE Energy Policy Responses to Russia’s 2022 Invasion

Dynamic Networks of Social Contact, Social Desire, and Affect Across Time Scales

Social relationships are central to well-being because they fulfill social affiliation needs. To explain how social needs are regulated, theories describe daily-life processes among social desire, social contact, and affect. Still, these processes remain empirically underexplored because of their complexity. In this study, we estimated multivariate associations of social desire and affect with social ...