Beschäftigung und Arbeitnehmereinkommen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland im Jahre 1974

Abstract

Fears that a further weakening of demand in the wake of the energy crisis could usher in a severe recession have been growing since the start of the year, especially in view of the fact that the inflationary effects of the increases in oil prices necessitated the retention of restrictive money policies. Decreasing demand for manpower had characterized the labor market situation as early as autumn of 1973. The deterioration of the labor market did not, however, have a noticeable constraining effect on labor settlements in 1974: Excessive pay hikes of 11-12% were negociated. With the general economic downswing accelerating, the labor market situation became so threatening, unemployment increasing with each succeeding month, that job security came to be viewed as the highest priority problem of economic and social policy. At the seasonal low point, the number of unemployed persons rose to 1.2 million. Including the numerous partial lay-offs, over 2 million persons were affected by work cutbacks and thus lass of income. At mid-year, employment showed a decline of nearly 1 million over a year ago. Seasonally adjusted, there was only one vacant job for every five persons seeking employment as of the end of June. Pay negociatiors have attempted to make allowance for the unfavorable economic situation with more modest settlements in 1975. Overall, pay increases thus far this year have fallen into the 6-7% range, half as large as last year's. In view of these extremely critical symptoms, the pay increases of the '75 round of settlements - counteracted by a negative pay drift - will have a very weak impact on the expansion of total wages and salaries. Taking into account losses due to decreased employment and partial lay-offs, the average of total wages and salaries in the year 1975 will not exceed the 1974 level by more than 3.5-4%.