Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 1 / 1974, S. 74-90
Ingo Pfeiffer, Peter Ring
The article analyses the trend in the supply of housing as well as future housing requirements in West Berlin. The ratio of number of households and number of dwellings is examined according to total number and size. The housing requirements are considered to be satisfied if each household is supplied with housing accommodation of sufficient size. ln the years 1950-1972, the number of dwellings rose by over 390,000 units to 1,040,000. The proportion of old dwellings continues to be high and includes approximately 110,000 units which are regarded as dilapidated. The number of private households increased markedly over that period, while the population remained nearly unchanged. At present the number of dwellings falls short of that of households in Berlin; especially larger units are lacking. A comparison between Berlin, Hamburg, and the Federal Republic as a whole shows that in terms of quantity Berlin is better off than the former areas, but worse as regards equipment, age and size structure of the dwellings. The projection is based on two assumptions as to the population trend: a decline by 200,000 and no changes in population until 1985, respectively. The number of households as calculated for both models will increase either relatively (1st model) or in absolute terms (2nd model). The number of existing dwellings is projected to the year 1975 when it will amount to 1,075,000 units. It is further assumed that 60,000 dwellings will be demolished in the forecasting period. lf the population decreases, it will be sufficient to build 50,000 dwellings after 1975 in order to meet the requirements of 1980 and the following years. Should the number of inhabitants remain unchanged, 120,000 dwellings will have to be erected until1985. In either event, an increased number of large dwellings should be built. The assumed building output will, however, not be sufficient to improve the overall quality of housing effectively.