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DIW Discussion Papers 997 / 2010
In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a benchmark AR(1) model and the models including the consumer surveys and financial indicators. According to the Diebold-Mariano test of equal predictive ability, ...
2010| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Maximilian Podstawski, Boriss Siliverstovs
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DIW Discussion Papers 996 / 2010
The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations ("repo"). This has led some commentators to argue that the ECB needs "fiscal back-up" to cover any potential losses to be able to continue pursuing price stability. This Brief argues ...
2010| Ansgar Belke
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DIW Discussion Papers 995 / 2010
We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-by-step rather than one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the exit strategy. Price stability should take precedence in all decisions. Due to vagabonding global liquidity, there is a strong ...
2010| Ansgar Belke
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DIW Discussion Papers 994 / 2010
Better understanding the innovative process of renewable energy technologies is important for tackling climate change. Though concentrating solar power is receiving growing interest, innovation studies so far have explored innovative activity in solar technologies in general, ignoring the major differences between solar photovoltaic and solar thermal technologies. This study relies on patent data to ...
2010| Frauke G. Braun, Liz Hooper, Robert Wand, Petra Zloczysti
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DIW Discussion Papers 993 / 2010
This paper studies technological change in renewable energies, providing empirical evidence on the determinants of innovative activity with a special emphasis on the role of knowledge spillovers. We investigate two major renewable energy technologies - wind and solar - across a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1978 to 2004. Spillovers may occur at the national level, either within the same ...
2010| Frauke G. Braun, Jens Schmidt-Ehmcke, Petra Zloczysti
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DIW Discussion Papers 992 / 2010
This paper investigates the short-term effects of public smoking bans on individual smoking behavior. In 2007 and 2008, state-level smoking bans were gradually introduced in all of Germany's sixteen federal states. We exploit this variation in the timing of state bans to identify the effect that smoke-free policies had on individuals' smoking propensity and smoking intensity. Using rich longitudinal ...
2010| Silke Anger, Michael Kvasnicka, Thomas Siedler
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DIW Discussion Papers 991 / 2010
Population surveys around the world face the problem of declining cooperation and participation rates of respondents. Not only can item nonresponse and unit nonresponse impair important outcome measures for inequality research such as total household disposable income; there is also a further case of missingness confronting household panel surveys that potentially biases results. The approach commonly ...
2010| Joachim R. Frick, Markus M. Grabka, Olaf Groh-Samberg
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DIW Discussion Papers 990 / 2010
The paper investigates whether the presence and tenure of Private Equity (PE) investment in European companies improves their performance. Previous studies documented the unambiguous merit of a buyout during the 1980s and 1990s for listed firms in the US and UK markets. This study analyzes such influences in both listed and unlisted European firms during 2002-2007. Our analysis suggests that shortterm ...
2010| Oleg Badunenko, Christopher F. Baum, Dorothea Schäfer
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DIW Discussion Papers 989 / 2010
We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to control for the influence of an unobserved factor that can be decomposed into a contract-specific and a time- ...
2010| Kerstin Bernoth, Jürgen von Hagen, Casper G. de Vries
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DIW Discussion Papers 988 / 2010
We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the ...
2010| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Davide Ciferri, Allessandro Girardi
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DIW Discussion Papers 987 / 2010
We put forward a modern version of the 'developmental' view of government-owned banks which shows that the combination of information asymmetries and weak institutions creates scope for such banks to play a growth-promoting role. We present new cross-country evidence consistent with our theoretical predictions. Specifically, we show that during 1995-2007 government ownership of banks has been robustly ...
2010| Svetlana Andrianova, Panicos Demetriades, Anja Shortland
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DIW Discussion Papers 986 / 2010
In this paper we use a dynamic structural life-cycle model to analyze the employment, fiscal and welfare effects induced by unemployment insurance. The model features a detailed specification of the tax and transfer system, including unemployment insurance benefits which depend on an individual's employment and earnings history. The model also captures the endogenous accumulation of experience which ...
2010| Peter Haan, Victoria Prowse
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DIW Discussion Papers 985 / 2010
Turning unemployment into self-employment has become an increasingly important part of active labor market policies (ALMP) in many OECD countries. Germany is a good example where the spending on start-up subsidies for the unemployed accounted for nearly 17% of the total spending on ALMP in 2004. In contrast to other programs-like vocational training, job creation schemes, or wage subsidies-the empirical ...
2010| Marco Caliendo, Steffen Künn
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DIW Discussion Papers 984 / 2010
We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort ...
2010| Johannes Geyer, Viktor Steiner
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DIW Discussion Papers 983 / 2010
We analyze the ECB Governing Council's voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme based on the multilinear extension (MLE) of games, we try to close three of these gaps. First, we integrate specific preferences of national central bank ...
2010| Ansgar Belke, Barbara von Schnurbein
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DIW Discussion Papers 982 / 2010
In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability of the euro area money demand function. We also compare single equation methods like the ARDL approach, FM-OLS, CCR and DOLS with the commonly used cointegrated ...
2010| Ansgar Belke, Robert Czudaj
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DIW Discussion Papers 981 / 2010
This note examines the stochastic properties of US term spreads with parametric and semi-parametric fractional integration techniques. Since the observed data (rather than the estimated residuals from a cointegrating regression) are used for the analysis, standard methods can be applied. The results indicate that US Treasury maturity rates are I(1) in most cases, although the order of integration decreases ...
2010| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana
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DIW Discussion Papers 980 / 2010
Information asymmetries can severely limit cross-border border expansion of banks. When a bank enters a new market, it has incomplete information about potential new clients. Such asymmetries are reduced by credit registers, which distribute financial data on bank clients. We investigate the interaction of credit registers and bank entry modes (in form of branching and M&A) by using a new set of time ...
2010| Caterina Giannetti, Nicola Jentzsch, Giancarlo Spagnolo
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DIW Discussion Papers 979 / 2010
Standard job search theory assumes that unemployed individuals have perfect information about the effect of their search effort on the job offer arrival rate. In this paper, we present an alternative model which assumes instead that each individual has a subjective belief about the impact of his or her search effort on the rate at which job offers arrive. These beliefs depend in part on an individual's ...
2010| Marco Caliendo, Deborah Cobb-Clark, Arne Uhlendorff
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DIW Discussion Papers 978 / 2010
We use a life cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice to study the effects of social security on the investment decisions of households for the European case. Our model is mainly based on the one developed by Cocco, Gomes, and Maenhout (2005). We extend it by unemployment risk using Markov chains to model the transition between different employment states. In contrast to most models in the ...
2010| Vladimir Kuzin, Franziska Bremus