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DIW Discussion Papers 937 / 2009
The paper scrutinizes the role of wages and capital flows for competitiveness in the new EU member states in the context of real convergence. For this purpose it extends the seminal Balassa-Samuelson model by international capital markets. The augmented Balassa-Samuelson model is linked to the monetary overinvestment theories of Wicksell and Hayek in order to trace cyclical deviations of real exchange ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Gunther Schnabl, Holger Zemanek
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DIW Discussion Papers 936 / 2009
Why are female entrepreneurs so rare? Women have both to a lower entry rate into selfemployment and a higher exit rate in Germany. To explain the gender gap, a structural microeconometric model of the transition rates is estimated, which includes a standard risk aversion parameter. As inputs into the model, the expected value and variance of earnings from self-employment and dependent employment are ...
2009| Frank M. Fossen
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DIW Discussion Papers 935 / 2009
In this paper we develop a structural model of female employment and fertility which accounts for intertemporal feedback effects between the two outcomes. We identify the effect of financial incentives on the employment and fertility decision by exploiting variation in the tax and transfer system which differs by employment state and number of children. To this end we simulate in detail the effects ...
2009| Peter Haan, Katharina Wrohlich
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DIW Discussion Papers 934 / 2009
Taxation changes the expectations of prospective university students about their future level and uncertainty of after-tax income. To estimate the impact of taxes on university enrollment, we develop and estimate a structural microeconometric model, in which a high-school graduate decides to enter university studies if expected lifetime utility from this choice is greater than that anticipated from ...
2009| Frank M. Fossen, Daniela Glocker
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DIW Discussion Papers 933 / 2009
Global liquidity expansion has been very dynamic since 2001. Contrary to conventional wisdom, high money growth rates have not coincided with a concurrent rise in goods prices. At the same time, however, asset prices have increased sharply, significantly outpacing the subdued development in consumer prices. We investigate the interactions between money and goods and asset prices at the global level. ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Walter Orth, Ralph Setzer
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DIW Discussion Papers 932 / 2009
This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and ...
2009| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Burcu Erdogan, Vladimir Kuzin
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DIW Discussion Papers 931 / 2009
In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a "base case" which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity ...
2009| Daniel Huppmann, Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Sophia Rüster, Christian von Hirschhausen, Steven A. Gabriel
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DIW Discussion Papers 930 / 2009
The Arrow index of a fuzzy choice function C is a measure of the degree to which C satisfies the Fuzzy Arrow Axiom, a fuzzy version of the classical Arrow Axiom. The main result of this paper shows that A(C) characterizes the degree to which C is full rational. We also obtain a method for computing A(C). The Arrow index allows to rank the fuzzy choice functions with respect to their rationality. Thus, ...
2009| Irina Georgescu
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DIW Discussion Papers 929 / 2009
There is by now a lot of evidence showing a sharp increase in cross-sectional wage and earnings inequality during the 2000s in Germany. Our study is the first to decompose this cross-sectional variance into its permanent and transitory parts for years beyond 2000. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel on fulltime working individuals for years of 1994 to 2006, we do not find unambiguous empirical ...
2009| Michal Myck, Richard Ochmann, Salmai Qari
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DIW Discussion Papers 928 / 2009
This study questions the popular stereotype that women are more risk averse than men in their financial investment decisions. The analysis is based on micro-level data from large-scale surveys of private households in five European countries. In our analysis of investment decisions, we directly account for individuals' self-perceived willingness to take financial risks. The empirical evidence we provide ...
2009| Oleg Badunenko, Nataliya Barasinska, Dorothea Schäfer
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DIW Discussion Papers 927 / 2009
It has previously been shown that civil conflict influences many economic factors, including education, which play an important role in development and economic growth. Previous authors working on the influence of conflict on education have, however, always focused strongly on the supply-side effects, whereas this paper examines the influence of conflict on the demand for education. It is theoretically ...
2009| Olaf J. de Groot, Idil Göksel
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DIW Discussion Papers 926 / 2009
Several German states recently introduced tuition fees for university education. We investigate whether these tuition fees influence the mobility of university applicants. Based on administrative data of applicants for medical schools in Germany, we estimate the effect of tuition fees on the probability of applying for a university in the home state. We find a small but significant reaction: The probability ...
2009| Nadja Dwenger, Johanna Storck, Katharina Wrohlich
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DIW Discussion Papers 925 / 2009
We analyse the convergence and heterogeneity of living standards between East and West Germany since unification. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we compare total individual income of permanent adult residents, including retirees and the unemployed, of East and West Germany over the fifteen years for which data are available. Using a fixed effects vector decomposition method, ...
2009| Tilman Brück, Heiko Peters
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DIW Discussion Papers 924 / 2009
Using a firm-level panel data set I assess whether dynamic models of in- vestment provide an empirically fruitful framework for analyzing tax effects on changes in capital stock. In particular I estimate a one-step error correction model (ECM) complementing the usual estimation of a distributed lag model. A correction term accounts for non-random sample attrition, which has not been considered in previous ...
2009| Nadja Dwenger
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DIW Discussion Papers 923 / 2009
An emerging question in demographic economics is whether there is a link between family size and the geographic distance between adult children and elderly parents. Given current population trends, understanding how different configurations of family size and sibship influence patterns of child-parent proximity is vitally important, as it impacts on issues such as intergenerational care and everyday ...
2009| Helena Holmlund, Helmut Rainer, Thomas Siedler
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DIW Discussion Papers 922 / 2009
We analyze the importance of global shocks for the global economy and national policy makers. More specifically, we investigate whether monetary policy has become less effective in the wake of financial globalization. We also examine whether there is increasing uncertainty for central banks due to globalization-driven changes in the national economic structure. A FAVAR framework is applied to derive ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Andreas Rees
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DIW Discussion Papers 921 / 2009
Research on ethno-linguistic ties has so far mostly focused on domestic measures of ethno-linguistic heterogeneity. Little attention has been given to the possibility that ethno-linguistic relations between countries may affect out- comes, particularly in a spatial econometric context. In this paper, I propose a way of measuring Ethno-Linguistic Affinity between nations. This new index measures the ...
2009| Olaf J. de Groot
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DIW Discussion Papers 920 / 2009
The well-documented positive correlation between income risk and wealth was interpreted as evidence for high amounts of precautionary wealth in various studies. However, the large estimates emerged from pooling non-entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs without controlling for heterogeneity. This paper provides evidence for Germany based on representative panel data including private wealth balance sheets. ...
2009| Frank M. Fossen, Davud Rostam-Afschar
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DIW Discussion Papers 919 / 2009
We present a model with firms selling (homogeneous) products in two imperfectly segmented markets (a "high-demand" and a "low-demand" market). Buyers are mobile but restricted by transportation costs, so that imperfect arbitrage occurs when prices differ in both markets. We show that equilibria are distorted away from Cournot outcomes to prevent consumer arbitrage. Furthermore, a merger can lead to ...
2009| Pio Baake, Christian Wey
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DIW Discussion Papers 918 / 2009
Methane is a major anthropogenic greenhouse gas, second only to carbon dioxide (CO2) in its impact on climate change. Methane (CH4) has a high global warming potential that is 25 times as large as the one of CO2 on a 100 year time horizon according to the latest IPCC report. Thus, CH4 contributes significantly to anthropogenic radiative forcing, although it has a relatively short atmospheric perturbation ...
2009| Claudia Kemfert, Wolf-Peter Schill