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DIW Discussion Papers 1679 / 2017
This paper develops a structural dynamic retirement model to investigate effects and corresponding underlying mechanisms of a partial retirement program on labor supply, fiscal balances, and the pension income distribution. The structural approach allows for disentangling the two counteracting mechanisms that drive the employment effects of partial retirement: 1) the crowding-out from full-time employment, ...
2017| Songül Tolan
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DIW Discussion Papers 1678 / 2017
This paper develops a path for the global energy system up to 2050, presenting a new application of the open source energy systems model OSeMOSYS to the community. It allows quite disaggregate energy and emission analysis: GENeSYS-MOD (Global Energy System Model) uses a system of linear equations of the energy system to search for lowestcost solutions for a secure energy supply, given externally defined ...
2017| Konstantin Löffler, Karlo Hainsch, Thorsten Burandt, Pao-Yu Oei, Claudia Kemfert, Christian von Hirschhausen
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DIW Discussion Papers 1677 / 2017
Flexibly coupling power and heat sectors may contribute to both renewable energy integration and decarbonization. We present a literature review of modelbased analyses in this field, focusing on residential heating. We compare geographical and temporal research scopes and identify state-of-the-art analytical model formulations, particularly concerning heat pumps and thermal storage. While numerical ...
2017| Andreas Bloess, Wolf-Peter Schill, Alexander Zerrahn
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DIW Discussion Papers 1676 / 2017
This paper studies the causal effect of status differences on moral disengagement and violence. To measure violent behavior, in the experiment, a subject can inflict a painful electric shock on another subject in return for money. We exogenously vary relative status in the realm of sexual attractiveness. In three between-subject conditions, the assigned other subject is either of higher, lower or equal ...
2017| Armin Falk
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DIW Discussion Papers 1675 / 2017
The relevance of spatial effects in the wage curve can be rationalized by the model of monopsonistic competition in regional labour markets. However, distortions in extracting the regional unemployment effects arise in standard regional (i.e. NUTS) classifications as they fail to adequately capture spatial processes. In addition, the nonstationarity of wages and unemployment is often ignored. Both ...
2017| Reinhold Kosfeld, Christian Dreger
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DIW Discussion Papers 1674 / 2017
We investigate the impact of competition policy enforcement on the functioning of European energy markets, and how sectoral regulation influences these outcomes. For this purpose, we compile a new dataset on the European Commission’s (EC) and EU member states’ competition policy decisions, and combine it with firm- and sector-level data. We find that EC merger policy has a positive and robust impact ...
2017| Tomaso Duso, Jo Seldeslachts, Florian Szücs
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DIW Discussion Papers 1673 / 2017
We investigate how personal income taxes affect the portfolio share of personal wealth that entrepreneurs invest in their own business. In a reformulation of the standard portfolio choice model that allows for underreporting of private business income to tax authorities, we show that a fall in the tax rate may increase investment in risky entrepreneurial business equity at the intensive margin, but ...
2017| Frank M. Fossen, Ray Rees, Davud Rostam-Afschar, Viktor Steiner
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DIW Discussion Papers 1672 / 2017
The performance of information criteria and tests for residual heteroskedasticity for choosing between different models for time-varying volatility in the context of structural vector autoregressive analysis is investigated. Although it can be difficult to find the true volatility model with the selection criteria, using them is recommended because they can reduce the mean squared error of impulse ...
2017| Helmut Lütkepohl, Thore Schlaak
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DIW Discussion Papers 1671 / 2017
We investigate how worries in Germany change across time and age, drawing on both closed-ended questions (which typically list a number of worry items) and open-ended questions answered in text format. We find that relevant world events influence worries. For example, worries about peace peaked in 2003, the year of the Iraq War, with a considerable number of respondents also referring to the Iraq war ...
2017| Julia M. Rohrer, Martin Bruemmer, Jürgen Schupp, Gert G. Wagner
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DIW Discussion Papers 1670 / 2017
This paper investigates the degree of persistence of market fear. Specifically, two different long-memory approaches (R/S analysis with the Hurst exponent method and fractional integration) are used to analyse persistence of the VIX index over the sample period 2004-2016, as well as some sub-periods (pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis). The findings indicate that its properties change over time: in ...
2017| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana, Alex Plastun
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DIW Discussion Papers 1669 / 2017
This paper examines global and regional stock market integration in Asia at both the aggregate and disaggregate (industry) level by applying the Phillips-Sul (2007) tests for panel and club convergence. The main findings can be summarised as follows. In the pre-2008 crisis period, no integration/convergence of any kind is found. By contrast, in the post-crisis period, the Asian stock markets appear ...
2017| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Kefei You
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DIW Discussion Papers 1668 / 2017
This paper employs a price-based measure of integration, namely stock return differentials between ten emerging Asian economies and the US (as an indicator of global integration), as well as Japan and the Asian region (as two alternative indicators of regional integration), to test for mean reversion and draw inference on financial integration. It makes a three-fold contribution: it uses not only aggregate ...
2017| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana, Kefei You
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DIW Discussion Papers 1667 / 2017
This paper revisits the Fisher hypothesis by estimating fractional integration and cointegration models that are more general than the standard ones based on the classical I(0)/I(1) dichotomy. Two sets of results are obtained under the alternative assumptions of white noise and Bloomfield (1973) autocorrelated errors respectively. The univariate analysis suggests than the differencing parameter is ...
2017| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana
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DIW Discussion Papers 1666 / 2017
In an urban economy, the distribution of people and real estate prices depends on the location of the central business district of a city. As distance from the city center increases, both prices and population density diminish, for travel costs increase in terms of time and money. As manufacturing gradually leaves the cities, the importance of consumer amenities as attractors of population to the urban ...
2017| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Irina Krylova, Darya Kryutchenko
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DIW Discussion Papers 1665 / 2017
In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated linguistic sentiment algorithms and business cycle news rated by experts perform best and are superior to ...
2017| Benjamin Beckers, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Dirk Ulbricht
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DIW Discussion Papers 1664 / 2017
We present an ex-post analysis of the effects of GDF’s acquisition of Suez in 2006 created one of the world’s largest energy companies. We perform an econometric analysis, based on Difference-in-Difference techniques on the market for trading on the Zeebrugge gas hub in Belgium. Removing barriers to entry and facilitating access to the hub through ownership unbundling were an important part of the ...
2017| Elena Argentesi, Albert Banal-Estanol, Jo Seldeslachts, Meagan Andrews
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DIW Discussion Papers 1663 / 2017
Mexico plans to implement a national program to support the adoption of distributed photo-voltaic generation (DPVG) among qualified households. The main objectives of such a program would be to reduce the burden of the substantial federal energy subsidy and increase the share of renewable energy sources used to generate electricity. In this paper we assess the current conditions under which the Mexican ...
2017| Pedro I. Hancevic, Hector M. Nunez, Juan Rosellón
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DIW Discussion Papers 1662 / 2017
This paper addresses the behavioral puzzle of women’s preference for competition when competitors are also women. Using a framed field experiment with 883 non-standard subjects, we show that none of the determinants of competitive behavior in general, including ability, self-confidence and risk aversion, provide a satisfying explanation for women’s substantive gender-related selection into competition. ...
2017| Norma Burow, Miriam Beblo, Denis Beninger, Melanie Schröder
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DIW Discussion Papers 1661 / 2017
Euro area countries and Japan are confronted with similar challenges. Potential output is on a falling trend in the euro area, and the decrease started well before the financial crisis. In Japan, low output growth is a striking feature since many years, despite the unconventional monetary policy stance and massive fiscal stimulus programs provided by the government. According to a growth accounting ...
2017| Christian Dreger
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DIW Discussion Papers 1660 / 2017
Faster urbanization plays a key role in the Chinese economic transformation. However, at the Lewis turning point, the hukou institution constitutes a serious risk to the process, as it restricts the access of migrants to public services offered by cities. To attract further migration, firms started to accept a premium on top of the wage. Thus, the social discrimination introduced by the hukou system ...
2017| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang