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DIW Discussion Papers 1298 / 2013
The management of congestion within the German electricity transmission network has become more important during the last years. This emerging relevance is caused by the increase of renewable generation and the partial phaseout of nuclear power plants. Both developments yield a change in the transmission flow pattern and thus the need for congestion management. Currently, four German transmission system ...
2013| Friedrich Kunz, Alexander Zerrahn
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DIW Discussion Papers 1297 / 2013
Negative effects of job loss on adults such as considerable fall in income have long been examined. If job loss has negative consequences for adults, it may spread to their children. But potential effects on children's non-cognitive skills and the related mechanisms have been less examined. This paper uses propensity score matching to analyze maternal involuntary job loss and its potential causal effect ...
2013| Frauke H. Peter
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DIW Discussion Papers 1296 / 2013
This paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of portfolio flows, namely equity and bond flows, as well as the dynamic linkages between exchange rate volatility and the variability of these two types of flows. Specifically, a bivariate GARCH-BEKK-in-mean model is estimated using bilateral data for the US vis-à-vis Australia, the UK, Japan, Canada, the euro area, ...
2013| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Faek Menla Ali, Nicola Spagnolo
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DIW Discussion Papers 1295 / 2013
After the global financial crisis, some governments in the EU experienced serious debt financing problems, while others were less affected. This paper seeks to shed light on the divergent fiscal performance by assessing the fiscal conduct in the EU countries before and after the outbreak of the crisis. Fiscal reaction functions of the primary balance are estimated for different groups of EU countries ...
2013| Guido Baldi, Karsten Staehr
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DIW Discussion Papers 1294 / 2013
This paper analyses the long-memory properties of a high-frequency financial time series dataset. It focuses on temporal aggregation and other features of the data, and how they might affect the degree of dependence of the series. Fractional integration or I(d) models are estimated with a variety of specifications for the error term. In brief, we find evidence that a lower degree of integration is ...
2013| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana
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DIW Discussion Papers 1293 / 2013
Preferences for transport activities are often considered only in terms of time and money. Whilst congestion in automobile traffic increases costs by raising trip durations, the same is less obvious in public transport (PT), especially rail-based. This has lead many economic analyses to conclude that there exists a free lunch by reducing the attractiveness of automobile transport at no (or little) ...
2013| Luke Haywood, Martin Koning
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DIW Discussion Papers 1292 / 2013
In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a prespecified coverage level, for the impulse responses at all horizons considered simultaneously. The methods are compared ...
2013| Helmut Lütkepohl, Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, Peter Winker
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DIW Discussion Papers 1291 / 2013
This paper studies the interaction of information disclosure and reputational concerns in certification markets. We argue that by revealing less precise information a certifier reduces the threat of capture. Opaque disclosure rules may reduce profits but also constrain feasible bribes. For large discount factors a certifier is unconstrained in the choice of a disclosure rule and full disclosure maximizes ...
2013| Martin Pollrich, Lilo Wagner
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DIW Discussion Papers 1290 / 2013
This paper provides an empirical test of the scapegoat theory of exchange rates (Bacchetta and van Wincoop 2004, 2011). This theory suggests that market participants may at times attach significantly more weight to individual economic fundamentals to rationalize the pricing of currencies, which are partly driven by unobservable shocks. Using novel survey data which directly measure foreign exchange ...
2013| Marcel Fratzscher, Lucio Sarno, Gabriele Zinna
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DIW Discussion Papers 1289 / 2013
This study examines the nature of the linkages between stock market prices and exchange rates in six advanced economies, namely the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, the euro area, and Switzerland, using data on the banking crisis between 2007 and 2010. Bivariate GARCH-BEKK models are estimated producing evidence of unidirectional spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes in the US and the UK, ...
2013| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, John Hunter, Faek Menla Ali
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DIW Discussion Papers 1288 / 2013
This paper examines the PPP hypothesis analysing the behaviour of the real exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar for four major currencies (namely, the Canadian dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound). An innovative approach based on fractional integration in a multivariate context is applied to annual data from 1970 to 2011. Long memory is found to characterise the Canadian dollar, ...
2013| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana, Yuliya Lovcha
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DIW Discussion Papers 1287 / 2013
This study aims to explore poverty measures, its dynamics and determinants using Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) and consumption poverty. Our results show that the two measures assign similar poverty status to about 52 percent of households and that both approaches confirm poverty is mainly transient in rural Ethiopia. However, we find that the trend in adjusted head count poverty is different ...
2013| Tilman Brück, Sindu Workneh Kebede
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DIW Discussion Papers 1286 / 2013
We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from 1970:1.2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for persistence to depend on the size and sign of shocks to inflation as well as the inflation rate. Inflation ...
2013| Markku Lanne
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DIW Discussion Papers 1285 / 2013
We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly increased again in the late 1990.s. Estimates of the new Keynesian Phillips curve indicate that current inflation ...
2013| Markku Lanne, Jani Luoto
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DIW Discussion Papers 1284 / 2013
We investigate long-term trends in the intergenerational transmission of education in a low income country undergoing a transition from socialism to a market economy. We draw on evidence from Kyrgyzstan using data from three household surveys collected in 1993, 1998 and 2011. We find that Kyrgyzstan, like Eastern European middle income transition economies, generally maintained high educational mobility, ...
2013| Tilman Brück, Damir Esenaliev
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DIW Discussion Papers 1283 / 2013
Nonparametric efficiency analysis has become a widely applied technique to support industrial benchmarking as well as a variety of incentive- based regulation policies. In practice such exercises are often plagued by incomplete knowledge about the correct specifications of inputs and outputs. Simar and Wilson (2001) and Schubert and Simar (2011) propose restriction tests to support such specification ...
2013| Anne Neumann, Maria Nieswand, Torben Schubert
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DIW Discussion Papers 1282 / 2013
The GARCH(1,1) model and its extensions have become a standard econometric tool for modeling volatility dynamics of financial returns and port-folio risk. In this paper, we propose an adjustment of GARCH implied conditional value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts that exploits the predictive content of uncorrelated, yet dependent model innovations. The adjustment is motivated by non-Gaussian ...
2013| Benjamin Beckers, Helmut Herwartz, Moritz Seidel
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DIW Discussion Papers 1281 / 2013
We investigate whether people become more willingly self-employed during boom periods or in recessions and to what extent it is the business cycle or the employment status influencing entry rates into entrepreneurship. Our analysis for Germany reveals that start-up activities are positively influenced by unemployment rates and that the cyclical component of real GDP has a negative effect. This implies ...
2013| Michael Fritsch, Alexander S. Kritikos, Katharina Pijnenburg
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DIW Discussion Papers 1280 / 2013
This paper studies the long-term impact of societal socialization on values using the example of doping behavior in sports. We apply the German Reunification Approach to the microcosm of Berlin and exploit its 40-year long division into a capitalist and a communist sector. We deliberately chose attitudes toward doping to test the impact of ideology on values since (i) post-1989 disappointed economic ...
2013| Nicolas R. Ziebarth, Gert G. Wagner
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DIW Discussion Papers 1279 / 2013
This paper examines the dynamics of stock prices in Ukraine by estimating the degree of persistence of the PFTS stock market index. Using long memory techniques we show that the log prices series is I(d) with d slightly above 1, implying that returns are characterised by a small degree of long memory and thus are predictable using historical data. Moreover, their volatility, measured as the absolute ...
2013| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana