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DIW Discussion Papers 1218 / 2012
We propose an alternative way of estimating Taylor reaction functions if the zero-lowerbound on nominal interest rates is binding. This approach relies on tackling the real rather than the nominal interest rate. So if the nominal rate is (close to) zero central banks can influence the inflation expectations via quantitative easing. The unobservable inflation expectations are estimated with a state-space ...
2012| Ansgar Belke, Jens Klose
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DIW Discussion Papers 1217 / 2012
Previous research shows that technical progress at the industry level, measured by sectoral TFP growth, is more localized in continental European countries than in Anglo-Saxon countries. We use EU KLEMS data sets to decompose sectoral TFP for nine European countries by means of a Malmquist approach, in order to separate technical change. Applying Harberger diagrams, we describe the sectoral patterns ...
2012| Alexander Schiersch, Heike Belitz, Martin Gornig
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DIW Discussion Papers 1216 / 2012
The price for a single-family house depends both on the characteristics of the building and on its location. We propose a novel semiparametric method to extract location values from house prices. After splitting house prices into building and land components, location values are estimated with adaptive weight smoothing. The adaptive estimator requires neither strong smoothness assumptions nor local ...
2012| Jens Kolbe, Rainer Schulz, Martin Wersing, Axel Werwatz
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DIW Discussion Papers 1215 / 2012
In this study we investigate the impact of the thin capitalization rule (TCR), introduced in Germany in 2008, on firms' capital structure, investment and profitability. The identification of the causal effects is based on the escape clauses in the regulation using a difference-in-difference approach. Our results present evidence that firms strongly react in order to avoid the limited deductibility ...
2012| Hermann Buslei, Martin Simmler
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DIW Discussion Papers 1214 / 2012
This paper derives a new effect of trade liberalisation on the quality of the environment. We show that in the presence of heterogeneous firms the aggregate volume of emissions is influenced not only by the long-established scale effect, but also by a reallocation effect resulting from an increase in the relative size of more productive firms. We show how the relative importance of these effects, and ...
2012| Udo Kreickemeier, Philipp M. Richter
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DIW Discussion Papers 1213 / 2012
In this paper I investigate the causal returns to education for different educational groups in Germany by employing a new method by Klein and Vella (2010) that bases identification on the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity. Compared to IV methods, key advantages of this approach are unbiased estimates in the absence of instruments and parameter interpretation that is not bounded to local average ...
2012| Nils Saniter
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DIW Discussion Papers 1212 / 2012
In this paper, we construct a data set of Internet offer prices for flats in 48 large European cities from 24 countries. The data are collected in January - April 2012 from 33 websites, where the advertisements of flats for sale are placed. Using these data we investigate the determinants of the flat prices. Four factors are found to be relevant for the flats' price level: income per capita, population ...
2012| Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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DIW Discussion Papers 1211 / 2012
This paper investigates the relationship between wealth, ageing and saving behaviour of private households by using pooled cross sections of German consumption survey data. Different components of wealth are distinguished, as their impact on the savings rate is not homogeneous. On average, the effect attributed to real estate dominates the other components of wealth. In addition, the savings rate strongly ...
2012| Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger, Richard Ochmann
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DIW Discussion Papers 1210 / 2012
Dynamic discrete choice models usually require a general specification of unobserved heterogeneity. In this paper, we apply Bayesian procedures as a numerical tool for the estimation of a female labor supply model based on a sample size which is typical for common household panels. We provide two important results for the practitioner: First, for a specification with a multivariate normal distribution ...
2012| Peter Haan, Daniel Kemptner, Arne Uhlendorff
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DIW Discussion Papers 1209 / 2012
Why do people engage in entrepreneurship and commit large parts of their personal wealth to their business, despite comparably low returns and high risk? This paper connects several streams of literature to shed some light on this puzzle and suggests possible future research avenues. Key insights from the literature are that entrepreneurs may operate in imperfect financial markets and that entrepreneurs ...
2012| Frank M. Fossen
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DIW Discussion Papers 1208 / 2012
We estimate the causal relationship between family size and labour market outcomes for families in low fertility and low female employment regime. Family size is instrumented using twinning and gender composition of the first two children. Among families with at least one child we identify the average causal effect of an additional child on mother's employment to be -7.1 percentage points. However, ...
2012| Krzysztof Karbownik, Michal Myck
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DIW Discussion Papers 1207 / 2012
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the growth rates of housing prices and rents. Using a quasi out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both ...
2012| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Andreas Mense
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DIW Discussion Papers 1206 / 2012
The paper analyzes the gender pay gap in private-sector management positions based on German panel data and using fixed-effects models. It deals with the effect of occupational sex segregation on wages, and the extent to which wage penalties for managers in predominantly female occupations are moderated by firm size. Drawing on economic and organizational approaches and the devaluation of women's work, ...
2012| Anne Busch, Elke Holst
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DIW Discussion Papers 1205 / 2012
This paper estimates the effect of political power on tax policies in municipal councils under a proportional election system. The main challenge in estimating the causal effect of parties on policy is to isolate the effect of power from underlying voter preferences and the selection effect of parties. We use an instrumental variable approach where close elections provide the exogenous variation in ...
2012| Ronny Freier, Christian Odendahl
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DIW Discussion Papers 1204 / 2012
The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of revenue decentralization on the provision of infrastructure at the sub-national level. We estimate the effects of revenue decentralization and earmarked grant financing on the level of sub-national infrastructure investment in 20 European countries over the period 1990-2009. The results are interpreted in light of the predictions of the theory on fiscal ...
2012| Andreas Kappeler, Albert Solé-Ollé, Andreas Stephan, Timo Välilä
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DIW Discussion Papers 1203 / 2012
A non-linear model is applied where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction. We call the latter a "play" area - analogous to mechanical play and implement an algorithm describing path-dependent playhysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on German exports is then estimated based on quarterly ...
2012| Ansgar Belke, Matthias Göcke, Martin Günther
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DIW Discussion Papers 1202 / 2012
This paper analyzes the necessary local conditions required for the existence of positive spillovers from multinationals' entry and it consists of a unified study of absorptive capacities. We start from the idea that FDI speeds up the diffusion of technologies across countries. Yet, the question that arises is: to what extent are these advanced technologies absorbed and successfully internalized by ...
2012| Beatrice Farkas
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DIW Discussion Papers 1201 / 2012
Can cash transfers promote employment and reduce poverty in rural Africa? Will lower youth unemployment and poverty reduce the risk of social instability? We experimentally evaluate one of Uganda's largest development programs, which provided thousands of young people nearly unconditional, unsupervised cash transfers to pay for vocational training, tools, and business start-up costs. Mid-term results ...
2012| Christopher Blattman, Nathan Fiala, Sebastian Martinez
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DIW Discussion Papers 1200 / 2012
This paper analyses monthly hours worked in the US over the sample period 1939m1 - 2011m10 using a cyclical long memory model; this is based on Gegenbauer processes and characterised by autocorrelations decaying to zero cyclically and at a hyperbolic rate along with a spectral density that is unbounded at a non-zero frequency. The reason for choosing this specification is that the periodogram of the ...
2012| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana
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DIW Discussion Papers 1199 / 2012
This paper investigates the relationship between global liquidity and commodity and food prices applying a global cointegrated vector-autoregressive model. We use different measures of global liquidity and various indices of commodity and food prices for the period 1980-2011. Our results support the hypothesis that there is a positive long-run relation between global liquidity and the development of ...
2012| Ansgar Belke, Ingo G. Bordon, Ulrich Volz