This series of lectures considers econometrics issues that arise in the process of forecasting. We will see that several basic econometric notions need to be reconsidered when forecasting. An important starting point when forecasting is the underlying motivation for the forecast, which can be summarised in the loss function. We then move to multistep forecasting, forecasting in changing...
Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we document a significant rise in monthly earnings in- equality between 1993 and 2018. The main contributors are inter-temporal increases in working hours inequality and increases in the covariance between working hours and hourly wages, while changes in the distribution of hourly wages play a minor role. Applying a novel double decomposition technique ...
We use the prolonged Greek crisis as a case study to understand how a lasting economic shock affects the innovation strategies of firms in economies with moderate innovation activities. Adopting the 3-stage CDM model, we explore the link between R&D, innovation, and productivity for different size groups of Greek manufacturing firms during the prolonged crisis. At the first stage, we find that the ...
