Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) liegt im Dezember bei 86,4 Punkten und hat sich damit gegenüber November um 2,7 Punkte erhöht. Der Barometerwert liegt aber weiterhin deutlich unter der neutralen 100-Punkte-Marke, die ein durchschnittliches Wachstum anzeigt. Somit schließt die deutsche Wirtschaft das Jahr trotz dieses kleinen Lichtblicks schwach ...
SOEP Research Support Team
The German economy is stuck in a difficult position as it faces both slow growth as well as structural change. The continuing lack of orders in manufacturing, increasing international competition, and sluggish development in industry-related services are now affecting the labor market and leading not only to short-time work but to layoffs too, despite the continuing skilled worker shortage. While GDP ...
Recent proposals for a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) favor a reinsurance framework. In this paper, we use a regime-switching open economy DSGE model with bank defaults to assess the relative efficiency of such a scheme. We find that reinsurance by EDIS is more effective in stabilizing real activity, credit, and welfare than a national fiscal backstop. We demonstrate that risk-weighted contributions ...
Wissenschaftsunterstützendes Team der forschungsbasierten Infrastruktureinrichtung 'Sozio-oekonomisches Panel (SOEP)'
We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or “haircuts.” Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 ...
