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Self-Employment and Conflict in Colombia

Many Colombians are confronted with the ongoing conflict that influences their decision making in everyday life, including their behavior in labor markets. This study focuses on the impact of violent conflict on self-employment, enlarging the usual determinants with a set of conflict variables. Our estimation strategy compares three different estimates: one from fixed-effects panel data (OLS-FE), estimates ...

Forecasting Contemporaneous Aggregates with Stochastic Aggregation Weights

Many contemporaneously aggregated variables have stochastic aggregation weights. We compare different forecasts for such variables, including univariate forecasts of the aggregate, a multivariate forecast of the aggregate that uses information from the disaggregated components, a forecast which aggregates a multivariate forecast of the disaggregate components and the aggregation weights, and a forecast ...

Does the Box-Cox Transformation Help in Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series?

The paper investigates whether transforming a time series leads to an improvement in forecasting accuracy. The class of transformations that is considered is the Box-Cox power transformation, which applies to series measured on a ratio scale. We propose a nonparametric approach for estimating the optimal transformation parameter based on the frequency domain estimation of the prediction error variance, ...

Gender Equality and Outsourcing of Domestic Work, Childbearing, and Relationship Stability among British Couples

This study investigates whether gender inequality in the division of housework and child care may be an obstacle to childbearing and relationship stability among different groups of British couples. Furthermore, it explores whether outsourcing of domestic labor ameliorates any negative effects of domestic work inequality. The empirical investigation uses event-history analysis based on 14 waves (1992-2005) ...

The Parenthood Effect on Gender Inequality: Explaining the Change in Paid and Domestic Work when British Couples Become Parents

This study examines the importance of prenatal characteristics of men and women in couples for how they change their time spent on housework and paid work after thetransition to parenthood. We focus on both partners' earnings and gender role attitudes as explanatory factors. Previous research explored the importance of women's relative income and both partners' gender role attitudes for the extent ...

The Interest Elasticity of Household Savings: A Structural Approach with German Micro Data

This paper empirically investigates the effects of changes in the interest rate as well as in the current and expected future consumer price levels on households' consumption-savings decision. In a structural demand model applied to German consumption data, we use cross-sectional and longitudinal variation in prices and tax rates to construct individual after-tax interest rates and cluster-specific ...

Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer Surveys

Survey-based indicators are widely seen as leading indicators for economic activity. As such, consumer confidence might be informative for the future path of private consumption. Although the indicators receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power often appears to be very limited. This paper takes a fresh look at the data that serve as a basis for the consumer confidence indicator (CCI) ...

Check Verbraucherpolitik und Verbraucherbeteiligung: Empfehlungen für eine evidenzbasierte Verbraucherpolitik

The paper discusses the opportunities for an empirically grounded decision support system as an instrument for independent and scientifically based consumer policy consulting. To date, consumer policy is dominated by the information paradigm and the leitbild of the rational, sovereign and information-seeking consumer. Yet, both everyday practice and research in behavioural economics show that this ...

The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries' fundamentals and fundamentals contagion - a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals - are the main explanations for the rise in sovereign yield spreads and CDS spreads during the crisis, not only for ...

L'entrée sur le marché du travail des descendants d'immigrés: une analyse comparée France-Allemagne