Publikationen Prognose und Konjunkturpolitik

German Economy: Industry Struggles to Shake of the Crisis: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy remains weak as of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, although industrial production is continuing its downward trend, there are signs of a slow recovery. The manufacturing sector is likely to expand production gradually beginning in 2020; therefore, it is less likely the recession in the industry will affect the service sector and construction industry. These sectors are profiting ...

Global Economy Continues to Suffer Weak Growth Momentum: DIW Economic Outlook

Favorable labor market conditions and the resulting increase in private consumption are still sustaining the global economy. Trade disputes and political uncertainties, however, continue to slow investment activity, with the result that economic growth will only be moderate particularly in advanced economies. By contrast, growth is accelerating in emerging markets, especially in India. Global economic ...

Strengthen the Foundation of the German Economy: Editorial

Housing Market Regulation Has Contributed to the Worldwide Triumph of Home Ownership

The present report presents new historical data based on country comparisons and research results regarding rent control and its long-term effect on the home ownership rate in 27 countries. Policy measures of rent control, protection against eviction, and housing space management have been widespread in most of the countries studied—particularly in continental Europe—in the past 100 years. At the same ...

German Economy: A Recession Is Not Automatically a Crisis: DIW Economic Outlook

The slowdown in the global economy and the uncertainties caused by Brexit have affected the export-oriented German economy, which is expected to grow by only 0.5 percent this year. However, the German economy has not slid into a crisis due to marked fiscal policy stimuli and favorable developments on the labor market. Private consumption remains a mainstay of the economy; in addition, there is moderate ...

The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighing on World Trade and Industry: DIW Economic Outlook

The ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the US and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit are negatively affecting the global economy. Global trade and investment activity, and thus in many places industrial output, are the areas most impacted. Consumption, however, is continuing to support the economy in many countries. DIW Berlin is expecting global GDP to grow to 3.7 percent this year and to slightly ...

Growth Program Needed as the Foundation of the German Economy Crumbles: Editorial

Productivity Growth in Decline despite Increasing Workforce Qualifications

After developing at an increasingly slower pace over the decades, labor productivity in Germany has recently stagnated. This is in contrast to the development of the workforce’s qualifications, which have been growing steadily due to rapid academicization. These phenomena can be found in other developed countries and are often attributed to sectoral change. Indeed, the shift of economic activity towards ...

High Risk of a Housing Bubble in Germany and Most OECD Countries

Housing prices in many countries have increased significantly over the past years, fueling a fear that speculative price bubbles will return. However, it can be difficult for policymakers to recognize when regulatory interventions in the market are necessary to counteract bubbles. This report shows how modern machine learning methods can be used to forecast speculative price bubbles at an early stage. ...

Public Investment a Key Prerequisite for Private Sector Activity

Ten years after the 2008 financial crisis, in the euro area investment is still below the pre-crisis level. Public and private investment growth is so weak that capital per worker (capital intensity) has virtually remained constant. An increase in public investment activity could ultimately stimulate private investment. Estimates for the euro area show that an increase in public investment by one billion ...