The Brexit vote has considerably increased economic uncertainty in Europe and beyond. It will likely affect economic performance and in particular investment in the euro area, which are both already relatively weak. The impact of this uncertainty shock on the euro area and the German economy is estimated with an econometric framework. A counterfactual analysis indicates that the uncertainty associated ...
As a result of Britain’s decision to leave the EU, global economic output is likely to grow at a somewhat slower pace than anticipated. The decision will have consequences for the UK and for the euro area in particular; this is also confirmed by simulations produced by the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM). An expected deterioration of economic relations—especially between the UK ...
Over the past ten years, the number of employed in Berlin has increased more dynamically than it has anywhere else in the country, resulting in a decrease in unemployment. But because the city’s potential labor force has also experienced considerable growth, Berlin’s unemployment rate remains well above the national average. Since jobs requiring intermediate qualifications have become more prevalent, ...
The high degree of uncertainty about the United Kingdom’s (UK) economic future following the June 23 Brexit referendum is leading to a flight into safe assets, and will most likely worsen financing conditions for British companies. In addition, companies could reduce investment and postpone hiring decisions. This is likely to start dampening economic growth in the UK in the short term, thus reducing ...
Supported by dynamic domestic demand, the German economy is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year. As consumption and investment in construction are likely to weaken in the coming year, is hardly contributing to growth 2017 should amount to roughly 1.4 percent. Foreign trade is contributing relatively little to growth. In both years of the forecast period, capacities will be at more or less normal ...
The world economy has yet to regain momentum: after the already weak final quarter of 2015, the pace of expansion slowed down again in the first quarter of 2016. In the emerging countries’ economies, growth is expected to remain subdued, especially in China, where the gradual slowdown continues as overcapacities are reduced. Russia and Brazil are likely to remain in recession: apart from the still-low ...
