Publikationen Prognose und Konjunkturpolitik

ECB Policies Effective in the Euro Area and Germany

The European Central Bank has engaged in a wide range of nonstandard monetary policy measures since 2007. Each new tool was accompanied by an intense public debate on its effectiveness. This study evaluates the average effect of these measures on the macro-economy. The estimates show that unexpected changes in monetary policy that lower euro-area sovereign bond yields lead to a significant rise in ...

ECB Asset Purchases May Affect Wealth Distribution

In the debate on monetary policy decisions, to date, little attention has been paid to distributional effects. One reason for this is that they are not included in the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB). Given the loose monetary policy stance in the euro area and the large-scale program to purchase government and corporate bonds launched in January 2015, the question increasingly being asked ...

Germany Economy Growing at Slightly Above-Average Rate: Eight Questions to Simon Junker

Domestic Demand Drives German Economy

The German economy is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year, and to maintain this pace in 2016 as well. The rate of growth should slow down slightly (to 1.5 percent) in 2017, but only because the number of working days will be lower due to the timing of public holidays. The global economy is growing at a slower pace than it has been in recent years, but will pick up speed during the forecast period. ...

The Construction Industry Continues Its Upward Trend: Seven Questions to Claus Michelsen

German Construction Industry: Refurbishment Lacks Momentum, New Residential Construction Gets Second Wind

The construction industry has been a key pillar of the German economy in recent years. New residential construction played a major part in this with the volume of new construction growing nominally by over 60 percent between 2010 and 2014. The development of construction work on existing residential buildings was less dynamic, however, with just under ten-percent growth between 2010 and 2014. A key ...

Integrating Refugees: A Long-Term, Worthwhile Investment

The debate about the massive influx of refugees into Germany often focuses solely on the short-term costs. But while these expenditures are bound to be substantial inthe coming years, the discussion neglects the long-term economic potential of a successful integration of refugees—often, young people—which can transform the initial expenditure into a worthwhile investment. Even if many of the refugees’ ...

Local Public Infrastructure Showing Signs of Wear and Tear

Investment in public infrastructure is essential to ensure competitiveness and create growth potential. Although Germany certainly has a well-developed infrastructure compared to other countries, local public infrastructure has been in decline for many years now. This means that current levels of investment are not sufficient to offset this decline, and the infrastructure is becoming increasingly outdated ...

Germany Particularly Affected by Current Influx of Refugees: Five Questions to Karl Brenke

Distribution of Refugees Very Uneven among EU Member States - Even When Accounting for Economic Strength and Total Population

The European Union is currently experiencing its largest influx of asylum seekers in years. Yet the distribution of these refugees across the member states is highly uneven: Large countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Spain, as well as the Eastern European countries (apart from Hungary), have received relatively few asylum seekers. Far more refugees are headed to Central Europe, ...