Publikationen Prognose und Konjunkturpolitik

European Natural Gas Supply Secure Despite Political Crises

Natural gas is a significant contributor to European energy supply. Hence, the political crisis between Russia and Ukraine increases fears of the consequences of Russia suspending natural gas supplies to Ukraine and the European Union. The last time this had occurred was in the winter of 2009 when Russia and Ukraine disputed about the price of natural gas and transit costs. However, the European Union ...

Europe’s Investment Slump: Five Questions to Claus Michelsen

Weak Investment Dampens Europe’s Growth

In the course of the economic and financial crisis, investment activity, which was not very strong to begin with, in Europe and especially the Eurozone caved in. In relation to gross domestic product, fixed capital formation declined by four percentage points since 2008. Already prior to the crisis, investment activity was rather weak in parts of the Eurozone — amongst others in Germany. This finding ...

An Investment Agenda for Europe

Only strong economic growth will help Europe emerge from its crisis. The reforms implemented to date at national and European level have failed to impact the economypositively; this is due to excessive national, corporate, and private debts, the flawed banking system, the lack of structural reforms, an insufficient institutional framework at European level, as well as a persisting climate of distrust ...

Weak Inflation and Threat of Deflation in the Euro Area: Limits of Conventional Monetary Policy

Inflation in the euro area has been below the European Central Bank's target for almost a year now and it is also expected to remain at a very low level in the near future. On the one hand, such a low level of inflation is not in line with the ECB's objective. On the other hand, there is the risk that this situation will lead to a slide into deflation. In view of the ECB's historically low policy rates, ...

Settling TARGET Balances after the Euro Crisis: Seven Questions to Claudia Lambert and Philipp König

TARGET Balances - An Anchor of Stability

The debate about TARGET2, the payment system of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), has resulted in controversial discussions in Germany in recent years. The present study by DIW Berlin concludes that fears often expressed in this context of the risks to Germany are largely unfounded. Germany is - in contrast to what is often claimed - one the beneficiaries of the Target system. In particular, ...

More Growth through Higher Investment

While many countries in the euro area are deep in recession due to a debt and structural crisis, the German economy appears to have excelled compared to many other euro area countries. Unemployment has fallen to the lowest level since German reunification, economic output has grown by over eight percent since 2009, and public budgets have been consolidated, generating a surplus in 2012. But this is ...

Germany Must Invest More in Its Future

Shortly before the parliamentary election in 2013, Germany is riding on a wave of euphoria: hardly any other euro country has weathered the financial and debt crisis so well. Since 2009, GDP has grown by over eight percent and 1.2 million new jobs have been created. Public finances were consolidated and, in 2012, there was a fiscal surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP. An impressive financial position indeed ...

Lack of Training for Young People Continues to be a Cause for Concern: Seven Questions to Karl Brenke