Publikationen Prognose und Konjunkturpolitik

Sharp Drop in Youth Unemployment in Germany but Regional Differences Remain

Youth unemployment in Germany has fallen to its lowest level since reunification. Between 2005 and 2012, unemployment among under 25 year olds has more than halved. By international standards, Germany is in an exceptionally strong position. Nowhere in Europe is youth unemployment lower. However, this is not so much due to structural improvements or positive labor market growth than to demographic change: ...

Germany Needs Stronger Wage: Five Questions to Karl Brenke

Industrial Development: France and Germany Drifting Apart

The significance of the manufacturing sector for the economies of both the European Union and the euro area has declined dramatically over the past ten years. However, development varied between the individual member states, which is particularly evident in a comparison between France and Germany. The manufacturing industry in Germany was able to maintain its position within the national economy, halting ...

A Skeptical View of Mechanisms for Business Cycle Harmonization in the Euro Area

The European Monetary Union brought with it a standardization of monetary policy and a system of fixed exchange rates. This was accompanied by disincentive effects which, in turn, resulted in serious economic distortions. Proposals are currently being made - not only by DIW Berlin - as to how compensatory payment mechanisms could be used to better synchronize the economic development of the member ...

Harmonizing Europe's Business Cycles at no Additional Cost: Six Questions to Ferdinand Fichtner

A Common Unemployment Insurance System for the Euro Area

A European transfer system could contribute to stabilization of the euro area by synchronizing business cycles in the monetary union, thus simplifying the common monetary policy. Such a system is proposed here in the form of a European unemployment insurance scheme. Compared to other forms of fiscal transfer systems, this has some advantages: by putting the focus on short-term unemployment, an automatic ...

A Transfer Mechanism as a Stabilization Tool in the EMU

With the crisis in the euro area, the issue of the institutional structure of the monetary union has gained in significance. One problem with regard to the longer-term stability of the euro area is the absence of mechanisms to adequately absorb asymmetric cyclical shocks in the individual member states. Such an instrument is essential in order to be able to implement a single monetary policy suitable ...

Unemployment in Europe: Young People Affected Much Harder Than Adults

The crises of the past few years have led to a significant increase in youth unemployment in Europe. This, in turn, has highlighted the long standing phenomenon of well above average youth unemployment. In some countries, the youth unemployment rate reached unprecedented levels, although the rise of unemployment among young people was no more significant than among adults. Furthermore, the media portrayal ...

Income Distribution: An Important Factor for Economic Forecasts

The development of private consumption is a crucial factor in compiling macroeconomic projections as part of national accounts. Household savings also play an important role as an explanatory variable for consumer development, since private households must decide whether to spend their incomes on consumption or saving. The estimated savings rate in DIW Berlin's economic projections can be improved ...

We Have Hidden Underemployment: Seven Questions to Karl Brenke