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DIW Discussion Papers 320 / 2003
Is it politically feasible for governments to engineer endogenous growth? This paper illustrates two reasonable political decision mechanisms by which fiscal policy generates endogenous growth with a single accumulable factor, under a constant returns to scale production technology, and without production externalities. In the first mechanism, optimal policies are chosen by the government to maximize ...
2003| Chetan Ghate, Paul J. Zak
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DIW Discussion Papers 318 / 2002
The standardisation of the European systems of national accounts has progressed significantly in recent years. Some room for interpretation remains in regard to some accounting standards, the periodicity of the data, and the quality of the forecasts of budget deficits. Yet national accounts data of the eurozone countries are now a reliable basis for macroeconomic policy decisions. The stability and ...
2002| Tilman Brück, Andreas Cors, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Rudolf Zwiener
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DIW Discussion Papers 314 / 2002
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching models were taken into consideration. The overall results indicate that the interest rate spread, the longterm ...
2002| Ulrich Fritsche, Vladimir Kuzin
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DIW Discussion Papers 312 / 2002
The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and López-Salido (2000) allowing for full hysteresis on the labour market. Our identification of the model implies ...
2002| Ulrich Fritsche, Camille Logeay
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DIW Discussion Papers 310 / 2002
This paper generalizes the analysis of distributive conflict, politics, and growth developed by by Alesina-Rodrik (1994). We construct a heterogenous-agent framework in which both growth and the distribution of wealth are endogenous. Due to adjustments in the distribution of wealth, the composition of factor ownership across households equalizes in the long run. This implies that the optimal tax rate ...
2002| Satya Das, Chetan Ghate
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DIW Discussion Papers 306 / 2002
After the collapse in the early years of transition, saving rates in many EU-accession countries have recovered and remained stable during recent years. This may indicate that the transformation process has come to an end with regard to savings. Is saving behaviour in EU-accession countries now driven by the same forces as it is in market economies? We use a panel data set covering the years 1990 to ...
2002| Mechthild Schrooten, Sabine Stephan
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DIW Discussion Papers 304 / 2002
This study argues that the political considerations were an important factor behind the crisis of the Brazilian real in January 1999. The divided coalition government and a president facing impending elections eschewed the correction of external misalignments and the fiscal austerity at a time when the markets were already excited by the 1997-98 East Asian and 1998 Russian financial crises. The hypothesis ...
2002| Omar F. Saqib
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DIW Discussion Papers 303 / 2002
The main objective of this paper is to understand the causes and symptoms of currency crises by reviewing its seminal literature, establishing its determinants, and outlining some of the relevant issues. The paper highlights the need to comprehend the process, which may lead to the inconsistency of the policies and render the situation favourable for a speculative attack. This involves, broadening ...
2002| Omar F. Saqib
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DIW Discussion Papers 286 / 2002
The growth of the German economy intrinsically depends on the development of German exports to the euro area, which is by far the biggest market for German products. The paper estimates a structural equation for the export demand from the EMU member countries, which is suitable for both simulations and short-term forecasts. However, the equation systematically underestimates the export demand for data ...
2002| Sabine Stephan
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DIW Discussion Papers 250 / 2001
The paper seeks to add to the existing literature on aggregate and private savings by focusing on transition economies. We use panel data over the period 1989-1998 and estimate a fixed-effects model. In Central Eastern European Countries, aggregate and private savings are driven by almost the same forces - this is the central focus of the paper. The most important factor behind both types of saving ...
2001| Mechthild Schrooten, Sabine Stephan