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DIW Discussion Papers 433 / 2004
This paper investigates the effect of economic integration on the ability of firms to maintain a collusive understanding about staying out of each other's markets. The paper distinguishes among different types of trade costs: ad valorem, unit, fixed. It is shown that for a sufficient reduction of ad valorem trade costs, a cartel supported by collusion on either quantities or prices will be weakened, ...
2004| Ulrich Fritsche, Vladimir Kuzin
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DIW Discussion Papers 431 / 2004
This note explores the relationship between the price elasticity of demand and the R&D intensity of the product. We introduce the concept of R&D intensity into a standard Dixit-Stiglitz/Krugman-type setting. R&D activity is treated as a fixed cost of production. Within this framework, sectors with a higher R&D intensity show a lower price elasticity of demand. This proposition is confirmed by an empirical ...
2004| Mechthild Schrooten, Sabine Stephan
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DIW Discussion Papers 427 / 2004
We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target ...
2004| Tilman Brück, Rudolf Zwiener
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DIW Discussion Papers 424 / 2004
Can a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an econ-omy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are non-linearly related and jointly en-dogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over the period 1950-2001, we find that the structural decline in growth rates that several welfare state economies ...
2004| Tatiana Fic, Chetan Ghate
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DIW Discussion Papers 399 / 2004
Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2002 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among forecasters. We argue that is not always advisable to listen to the majority of forecast-ers. The dispersion of forecasts ...
2004| Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche
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DIW Discussion Papers 397 / 2004
In a small structural model we find asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy in Germany depending on whether the economy is in an upswing or a downswing. These two different regimes are also identified using a Markov-switching model and the Kalman filter. Our results indicate that the effects of monetary policy are significantly higher in a downswing than in an upswing. It follows not only that ...
2004| Vladimir Kuzin, Silke Tober
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DIW Discussion Papers 372 / 2003
After the collapse in early transition years, saving rates in Eastern European EUaccession countries have recovered strongly. Is private saving in these countries now driven by the same forces as in the EU? A GMM estimator is applied to analyze the determinants of private saving in both country groups. Main results are: saving rates are persistent; income growth increases saving, whereas public saving ...
2003| Mechthild Schrooten, Sabine Stephan
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DIW Discussion Papers 362 / 2003
In diesem Papier wird an Hand eines Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodells (VECM) für den französischen Arbeitsmarkt untersucht, wie sich die dort Anfang 2000 eingeführte Verkürzung der Regelarbeitszeit in Verbindung mit Subventionen der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge ausgewirkt hat. Theoretisch sind die Effekte der Arbeitszeitverkürzung auf die Beschäftigung nicht eindeutig. Deshalb führen wir mit einem Arbeitsmarktmodell ...
2003| Camille Logeay, Sven Schreiber
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DIW Discussion Papers 351 / 2003
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit exogenous variables. In particular real interest rates were found to explain a quarter of the increase in ...
2003| Camille Logeay, Silke Tober
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DIW Discussion Papers 324 / 2003
One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other studies the direct informational content of leading US indicators for German producer confidence and the significance ...
2003| Gustav Adolf Horn