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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We study the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads across 10 EMU countries between Q1/1999 and Q1/2010. We apply a semiparametric time-varying coefficient model to identify, to what extent an observed change in the yield spread is due to a shift in macroeconomic fundamentals or due to altering risk pricing. We find that at the beginning of EMU, the government debt level and the general investors' ...
In:
Journal of International Money and Finance
31 (2012), 3, S. 639-656
| Burcu Erdogan, Kerstin Bernoth
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real gross regional product (GRP) for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior ...
In:
Journal of Forecasting
30 (2011), 7, S. 622-643
| Eric Girardin, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This paper examines the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP, including energy prices, for 25 OECD countries from 1981 to 2007. The distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows to distinguish between developments on an international and a national level as drivers of the long-run relationship. Indeed, cointegration ...
In:
Energy Economics
33 (2011), 5, S. 782-789
| Ansgar Belke, Frauke Dobnik, Christian Dreger
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We investigate the link between the propensity to become an entrepreneur and the exogenous release from financial constraints in Germany. This is defined in terms of the movement from employment to self-employment on receipt of a financial windfall. A theoretical framework developing Evans and Jovanovic (1989) is set up and tested with panel data from German households. The results show that financial ...
In:
Economic Modelling
28 (2011), 5, S. 2174-2180
| Dorothea Schäfer, Oleksandr Talavera, Charlie Weir
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We examine real business cycle convergence for 41 euro area regions and 48 US states. The results obtained by a panel model with spatial effects indicate that the impact of national business cycles has been rather stable over the past two decades. A tendency for convergence in business cycles often detected in country data is not confirmed at the regional level. The pattern of synchronization across ...
In:
The Manchester School
79 (2011), 5, S. 1035-1044
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Christian Dreger, Michael Artis
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We estimate firms' cash flow sensitivity of cash to empirically test how the financial system's structure and level of development influence their financial constraints. For this purpose we merge Almeida et al.'s work, a path-breaking design for evaluating a firm's financial constraints, with that of Levine, who paved the way for comparative analysis of financial systems around the world. We conjecture ...
In:
Journal of International Money and Finance
30 (2011), 4, S. 678-691
| Christopher F. Baum, Dorothea Schäfer, Oleksandr Talavera
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Linkages between banks and insurance companies are important when forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors. We propose a novel empirical framework that allows us to estimate unobserved linkages in panel data sets that contain observed regressors. We find that taking unobserved common factors into account reduces the root mean square forecasts error of firm specific forecasts by ...
In:
Journal of Banking & Finance
35 (2011), 4, S. 807-818
| Kerstin Bernoth, Andreas Pick
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS; Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the past decade (1999-2010). Evidence is based on country VARs augmented by a regional common-factor structure (FAVAR model). The models include nominal exchange rates, the common factor of exchange ...
In:
Emerging Markets, Finance & Trade
47 (2011), 4, S. 49-58
| Christian Dreger, Jarko Fidrmuc
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Security is often defined as the absence of threats. However, security has far more aspects, reaching from security of nation states to health security. Baldwin (1997) formulated seven questions to narrow the (broad) concept of security. Along with Baldwin's questions, this paper analyses 'security' in the context of private, public, and club goods and their changing mixture. On the individual level, ...
In:
Defence & Peace Economics
22 (2011), 2, S. 135-145
| Hella Engerer
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model specification in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g. monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models which are based on exponential lag polynomials for the coefficients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrict the dynamics and can therefore suffer from the curse of dimensionality. ...
In:
International Journal of Forecasting
27 (2011), 2, S. 529-542
| Vladimir Kuzin, Massimiliano Marcellino, Christian Schumacher