Publikationen Prognose und Konjunkturpolitik

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2321 Ergebnisse, ab 71
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    Incentive Effects of Fiscal Equalization: Has Russian Style Improved?

    The effects of intergovernmental fiscal arrangements on variation in regional economic growth are analyzed for Russia, a country with large cross-regional differences and considerable fiscal redistribution. Moreover, fiscal reforms implemented in the first half of the 2000s, which to some extent followed scientific advice, make analysis of this case particularly interesting. We observe that postreform ...

    In: Eastern European Economics 49 (2011), 2, S. 5-29 | Lev Freinkman, Konstantin A. Kholodilin,Ulrich Thießen
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    MIDAS vs. Mixed-Frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area

    This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model specification in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g. monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models which are based on exponential lag polynomials for the coefficients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrict the dynamics and can therefore suffer from the curse of dimensionality. ...

    In: International Journal of Forecasting 27 (2011), 2, S. 529-542 | Vladimir Kuzin, Massimiliano Marcellino, Christian Schumacher
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    Analysing Convergence in Europe Using the Non-linear Single Factor Model

    We investigate convergence in European price level, unit labour cost, income and productivity data over the period of 1960-2006 using the non-linear time-varying coefficients factor model proposed by Philips and Sul (2007 Econometrica 75:1771-1855). This approach is extremely flexible in order to model a large number of transition paths to convergence. We find regional clusters in consumer price level ...

    In: Empirical Economics 41 (2011), 2, S. 343-369 | Ulrich Fritsche, Vladimir Kuzin
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets: The Role of Economic Sentiments

    This paper examines the importance of different economic sentiments for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) during the transition process. We first analyze the importance of economic confidence with respect to the CEECs' financial markets. Since the integration of formerly strongly-regulated markets into global markets can also lead to an increase in the dependence of the CEECs' economies ...

    In: Review of International Economics 19 (2011), 1, S. 137-157 | Joscha Beckmann, Ansgar Belke, Michael Kühl
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    Detecting Illegal Activities: The Case of Cartels

    This paper considers enhancements of a comparatively new method to detect cartels, the System of Cartel Markers (SCM), introduced by Blanckenburg and Geist (Int Adv Econ Res 15(4):421-436, 2009). The aim of SCM is to find illegal collusion on legal markets with observable market data. It uses expected behavior patterns such aslow level of capacity utilization, slackness of price adjustments to exogenous ...

    In: European Journal of Law and Economics 32 (2011), 1, S. 15-33 | Korbinian von Blanckenburg, Alexander Geist
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    The Within-Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics of German Firms

    In this article, we analyse stylized facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55 000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has ...

    In: Applied Economics 42 (2010), 29, S. 3789-3802 | Jörg Döpke, Sebastian Weber
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    Banking Competition, Good or Bad? The Case of Promoting Micro and Small Enterprise Finance in Kazakhstan

    Competition is claimed to be beneficial in development projects promoting micro and small enterprise finance although there are still doubts as to whether these loans can be developed into a profitable business. Our research sheds new light on the question of how many MSE banking units should optimally be created and supported in a certain region. We employ a unique data set from the European Bank ...

    In: Applied Economics 42 (2010), 6, S.701-716 | Dorothea Schäfer, Boriss Siliverstovs, Eva Terberger
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    Do Regional Price Levels Converge?

    We investigate price level convergence on the base of regional data for 439 German districts.. - First and second generation tests are applied to the overall consumer price index as well as to the index without housing prices. They indicate a lack of regional price convergence. The. - second generation tests reveal that the source of the unit root is likely common for all regions. One rationale of ...

    In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 230 (2010), 3, S. 274-286 | Christian Dreger, Reinhold Kosfeld
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Real Interest Parity Condition?

    The real interest parity (RIP) condition combines two cornerstones in international finance, uncovered interest parity (UIP) and ex ante purchasing power parity (PPP). The extent of deviation from RIP is therefore an indicator of the lack of product and financial market integration. This paper investigates whether the nominal exchange rate regime has an impact on RIP. The analysis is based on 15 annual ...

    In: North American Journal of Economics and Finance 21 (2010), 3, S. 274-285 | Christian Dreger
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel

    In this study, we suggest an explanation for the low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over the period 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable percapita income, the real long-term interest rate, population growth, and urbanization. The differential development of real housing prices ...

    In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 230 (2010), 1, S.59-76 | Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Jan-Oliver Menz, Boriss Siliverstovs
2321 Ergebnisse, ab 71
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