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DIW Discussion Papers 1559 / 2016
This paper uses a structural VAR model to study the effect of monetary policy on the delinquency rate of business loans and consumer credit. The VAR is identified using at the same time several external instruments, which cover different approaches from the literature. Delinquency rates, defined as the rate of loans whose repayment is overdue for more than a month relative to total loans, are found ...
2016| Michele Piffer
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DIW Discussion Papers 1549 / 2016
We propose a new instrument to identify the impact of uncertainty shocks in a SVAR model with external instruments. We construct the instrument for uncertainty shocks by exploiting variations in the price of gold around selected events. The events capture periods of changes in uncertainty unrelated to other macroeconomic shocks. The variations in the price of gold around such events provide a measure ...
2016| Michele Piffer, Maximilian Podstawski
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DIW Discussion Papers 1547 / 2016
Minimum wages may be an important instrument to reduce income inequality in a society and to promote socially inclusive economic growth. While higher minimum wages can support the Chinese transformation towards consumption driven growth, they can worsen the price competitiveness in export markets. As they differ throughout the country, this paper investigates their determinants at the regional level. ...
2016| Christian Dreger, Reinhold Kosfeld, Yanqun Zhang
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DIW Discussion Papers 1538 / 2015
The wage curve introduced by Blanchflower and Oswald (1990, 1994) postulates a negative correlation between wages and unemployment. Empirical results focus on particular theoretical channels establishing the relationship. Panel models mostly draw on unionized bargaining or the efficiency wage hypothesis. Spatial econometric approaches can be rationalized by monopsonistic competition. However, the approaches ...
2015| Reinhold Kosfeld, Christian Dreger
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DIW Discussion Papers 1536 / 2015
Using the 2007 Mannheim innovation survey, we investigate whether family firms are more financially constrained than other firms and how this affects both innovation input as well as innovation outcomes such as market and firm novelties or process innovations. Based on the CDM framework, estimation of the recursive system of equations shows that family businesses are more likely to be constrained and ...
2015| Dorothea Schäfer, Andreas Stephan, Jenniffer Solórzano Mosquera
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DIW Discussion Papers 1530 / 2015
The paper aims at measuring the rental housing market regulations in Germany between 1913 and 2015. Four classes of housing policy are considered: Rent controls, tenant protection, rationing of housing, and fostering of social housing. Based on a thorough analysis of federal and regional legislation, for each class, an index is constructed, increasing in degree of regulation. The average of class-specific ...
2015| Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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DIW Discussion Papers 1518 / 2015
This study examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing the path of exchange rates, and in stabilizing the exchange rate in countries with narrow band regimes. ...
2015| Marcel Fratzscher, Oliver Goede, Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Tobias Stöhr
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DIW Discussion Papers 1496 / 2015
This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can "lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble emergences and collapses. Building on simulations, the paper shows that the detection capabilities of all ...
2015| Benjamin Beckers
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DIW Discussion Papers 1490 / 2015
This article sheds light on the interaction of media, economic actors, and economic experts. Based on a unique data set of 86,000 news items rated by professional analysts of Media Tenor International and survey data, we first analyze the overall tone of the media, consumers’, firms’, and economic experts’ opinions on the state and outlook of the economy. Second, we assess the protagonist’s ability ...
2015| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Christian Kolmer, Tobias Thomas, Dirk Ulbricht
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DIW Discussion Papers 1488 / 2015
The exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. Since January 2014, the Ruble lost 50% of its value against the US Dollar. The fall of the currency started with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia ...
2015| Christian Dreger, Jarko Fidrmuc, Konstantin Kholodilin, Dirk Ulbricht