Publikationen der Abteilung Makroökonomie

Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighs on Trade and Investment: DIW Economic Outlook

The global expansion weakened somewhat in the third quarter while the downside risks have increased. DIW Berlin’s forecast— almost unchanged—indicates an expansion in global economic production of 4.3 percent for 2018 and 3.9 percent for 2019. In 2020, momentum will slow down further to 3.6 percent. In some countries, temporary factors contributed to the economic slowdown. In major advanced economies, ...

Germany’s Economic Boom Is Cooling Off: Editorial

EU Government Bonds and Banks: Home Bias Pervasive throughout Member States but Capital Requirements Differ Greatly

The current banking regulatory framework assigns EU government bonds a risk weight of zero. Since the European debt crisis, there has been increasing controversy over eliminating this equity capital privilege, which is viewed as contributing to the close relationship between state and bank risks. This report analyses the development of home bias—the tendency of major European banks to invest disproportionately ...

Rental Market Regulation over the Last 100 Years in an International Comparison

Residential rental markets regulations have become an integral part of everyday life in Germany as in almost all other countries. The strong house price and rent increases over the past decade have fueled social debate on this issue. Tenant movements worldwide are demanding tighter regulations and advocating for affordable housing as a central civil right. In contrast, those skeptical of regulation ...

EU Immigration Has Increased Germany’s Economic Growth

Immigration to Germany has increased significantly since 2011, primarily due to the immigration of citizens from other euro area countries and those which joined the EU in 2004 and 2007. This increase is mainly attributable to a lack of immigration barriers and the good economic situation on the German labor market compared to other European countries. Model simulations show that GDP growth in Germany ...

A Sustainable Development of Inflation in Euro Area Requires Continuously Improving Labor Market

In the past five years, the inflation in the euro area has been well below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) aimed inflation rate of close to but below two percent for achieving its objective of price stabilization in the medium term. The present analysis shows that expectations of low inflation, rising cyclical unemployment, and external factors such as low crude oil prices were responsible. In the ...

Policy Responses to Turkey’s Crisis: Independent Central Bank and International Credit

The presently tenuous situation in Turkey will worsen if the government does not take appropriate policy action. In view of foreign investors’ loss of confidence, the cost of external financing is likely to rise while consumption and investment will fall, and the Turkish lira would depreciate further. The influx of foreign capital would dry up as well. Conservative estimates show that the country’s ...

German Economy Remaining Robust in Uncertain Times: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy will keep on growing amid risks although growth will slow down somewhat. GDP will continue to grow noticeably at 1.8 percent this year, 1.7 percent next year, and 1.8 percent in 2020. Private household incomes in particular—and thus consumption as well—are boosting growth, as the labor markets are improving: the unemployment rate will fall from 5.2 percent this year to well below ...

The Global Economy and the Euro Area: So Far Trade Disputes Have Had Only Limited Effects on Global Growth: DIW Economic Outlook

After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing ...

German Economy Continues to Grow Moderately but Risks Remain: Editorial