This paper examines the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental value, the latter determined by a money demand function. The out-of sample forecasting performance is compared to widely used alternatives, such as the term structure of interest rates...
Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
Houston, USA,
09.03.2011
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Den Haag, Niederlande,
08.03.2011
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