Thema Finanzmärkte

The Multifaceted Impact of US Trade Policy on Financial Markets

We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively, increasing market uncertainty, lowering interest rates, and leading to an appreciation ...

Schutzschild vor Überschuldung?

Exchange Rates, Foreign Currency Exposure and Sovereign Risk

We quantify the causal link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk of 16 major emerging market economies (EMEs) by means of structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) and conditional on data from 10/2004 through 12/2016. We apply a novel data-based identification approach of the structural shocks that allows to account for the complex interrelations within the triad of exchange rates, ...

The Case of Deutsche Telekom: How Stock Market Crashes Can Persistantly Affect Household Investment Decisions

Since decades, only one fourth of German households invest in shares. One exception was during the three IPOs from 1996 to 2000 of the Deutsche Telekom, which gave Germans a taste to enter the stock market. However, the fall in the share price shortly after the second IPO, followed by corruption scandals of the company, put an end to their enthusiasm. The present study based on SOEP data shows that ...

Der Fall der T-Aktie: Börsencrashs können dauerhaft Investitionsentscheidungen von Haushalten negativ beeinflussen

Seit Jahrzehnten investiert nur jeder vierte bis fünfte Haushalt in Deutschland in Aktien. Mit den drei Börsengängen der Deutschen Telekom 1996 bis 2000 wurden die Deutschen in Aktienlaune versetzt. Der Kurssturz kurz nach dem zweiten Börsengang, gefolgt von Korruptionsskandalen, beendete aber die gute Aktienstimmung. Die vorliegende Studie auf Basis von SOEP-Daten zeigt, dass die Ereignisse rund um ...

Der Wirecard-Skandal zeigt viele Parallelen zum Telekom-Skandal: Interview

Fehlende Selbstkontrolle und geringe finanzielle Bildung als Ursachen von Konsumschulden

Aktuell machen sich 40 Prozent der Menschen in Deutschland Sorgen um ihre eigene wirtschaftliche Situation. In ernsten finanziellen Schieflagen ist bislang aber nur eine Minderheit. Im Jahr 2020 galten 6,85 Millionen Personen in Deutschland als überschuldet, konnten ihren Zahlungsverpflichtungen also über längere Zeit nicht nachkommen. Diese Zahl weicht nicht signifikant von den Vorjahren ab. Dabei ...

Unconventional Fiscal Policy in HANK

We show that in a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity, fiscal policy can be a perfect substitute for monetary policy: three simple conditions for consumption taxes, labor taxes, and the government debt level are sufficient to induce the same consumption and labor supply of each household and, thus, the same allocation as interest rate policies. When monetary policy is constrained by a ...

Low for Long: Side Effects of Negative Interest Rates: Study Requested by the ECON committee

Policy rate cuts in negative territory have increased credit supply and improved the macroeconomic environment similar to cuts in positive territory. Dreaded disruptions to the monetary policy transmission channels as well as adverse side effects on bank profitability have so far largely failed to materialise. Thus, the evidence available today shows that the negative interest rate policy is an effective ...

ECB Policy Facilitating Corporate Financing in the Green Bond Market

The green bond market has grown strongly in recent years, especially in the euro area. With regard to the European Union’s climate targets, it is likely that the demand for green bonds—bonds that specifically support sustainable projects— will continue to increase in the future. The European Central Bank (ECB) is buying green bonds as well and is planning to reorient its strategy towards more sustainability. ...