Externe referierte Aufsätze

Estimation of Structural Impulse Responses: Short-Run versus Long-Run Identifying Restrictions

There is evidence that estimates of long-run impulse responses of structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models based on long-run identifying restrictions may not be very accurate. This finding suggests that using short-run identifying restrictions may be preferable. We compare structural VAR impulse response estimates based on long-run and short-run identifying restrictions and find that long-run ...

The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic News on Long-Term Inflation Expectations

Well-anchored inflation expectations should not react to macroeconomic news. This paper analyzes the dynamics of inflation expectations in a proxy SVAR model, where macro news shocks are identified by their correlation with surprises from macroeconomic news announcements. Our results confirm that macro news shocks have no impact on U.S. long-term inflation expectations in the long run. In the short ...

Social Causation Versus Health Selection in the Life Course: Does Their Relative Importance Differ by Dimension of SES?

A person’s socioeconomic status (SES) can affect health (social causation) and health can affect SES (health selection). The findings for each of these pathways may depend on how SES is measured. We study (1) whether social causation or health selection is more important for overall health inequalities, (2) whether this differs between stages of the life course, and (3) between measures of SES. Using ...

How Does Education Improve Cognitive Skills? Instructional Time versus Timing of Instruction

This paper investigates two mechanisms through which education may affect cognitive skills in adolescence, exploiting a school reform carried out at the state level in Germany as a quasi-natural experiment to identify causal effects: between 2001 and 2007, years at academic-track high school were reduced by one, leaving the overall curriculum unchanged. First, I exploit the variation over time and ...

China's Emissions Trading Takes Steps Towards Big Ambitions

China recently announced its national emissions trading scheme, advancing market-based approaches to cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Its evolution over coming years will determine whether it becomes an effective part of China’s portfolio of climate policies.

A Review of Technology and Policy Deep Decarbonization Pathway Options for Making Energy-Intensive Industry Production Consistent with the Paris Agreement

Pathways between Socioeconomic Status and Health: Does Health Selection or Social Causation Dominate in Europe?

Health differences which correspond to socioeconomic status (SES) can be attributed to three causal mechanisms: SES affects health (social causation), health affects SES (health selection), and common background factors influence both SES and health (indirect selection). Using retrospective survey data from 10 European countries (SHARELIFE, n = 20,227) and structural equation models in a cross-lagged ...

Pricing Carbon Consumption: Synthesizing an Emerging Trend

Nearly every carbon price regulates the production of carbon emissions, typically at midstream points of compliance such as power plants, consistent with typical advice from the literature. Since the early 2010s however, policymakers in Australia, California, China, Japan and Korea have implemented carbon prices that regulate the consumption of carbon emissions, where points of compliance are further ...

Testing Supply-Side Climate Policies for the Global Steam Coal Market—Can They Curb Coal Consumption?

The achieved international consensus on the 1.5–2 °C target entails that most of current fossil fuel reserves must remain unburned. A major contribution has to come from coal as both the most abundant and the most emission-intensive fuel. Currently, a majority of climate policies aiming at reducing coal consumption are directed towards the demand side. In the absence of a global carbon-pricing regime, ...

Coal Taxes as Supply-Side Climate Policy: a Rationale for Major Exporters?

The shift away from coal is at the heart of the global low-carbon transition. Can governments of coal-producing countries help facilitate this transition and benefit from it? This paper analyses the case for coal taxes as supply-side climate policy implemented by large coal exporting countries. Coal taxes can reduce global carbon dioxide emissions and benefit coal-rich countries through improved terms-of-trade ...

The Impact of Policy Measures on Future Power Generation Portfolio and Infrastructure: a Combined Electricity and CCTS Investment and Dispatch Model (ELCO)

This paper presents a general electricity-CO2 modeling framework that is able to simulate interactions of the energy-only market with different forms of national policy measures. We set up a two sector model where players can invest into various types of generation technologies including renewables, nuclear power and carbon capture, transport, and storage (CCTS). For a detailed representation of CCTS ...

A Spatial Electricity Market Model for the Power System: the Kazakhstan Case Study

Kazakhstan envisions a transition towards a green economy in the next decades, which poses an immense challenge as the country's economy and energy system depends heavily on hydrocarbon resources. Here, it lacks inclusive and transparent tools assessing technical, economic, and environmental implications resulting from changes in its electricity system. We present such a tool: our comprehensive techno-economic ...

If You Choose Not to Decide, You Still Have Made a Choice

When designing stated-choice experiments modellers may consider offering respondents an “indifference” alternative to avoid stochastic choices when utility differences between alternatives are perceived as too small. By doing this, the modeller avoids adding white noise to the data and may gain additional information. This paper proposes a framework to model discrete choices in the presence of indifference ...

Internet and Politics: Evidence from UK Local Elections and Local Government Policies

We empirically study the effects of broadband internet diffusion on local election outcomes and on local government policies using rich data from the U.K. Our analysis shows that the internet has displaced other media with greater news content (i.e. radio and newspapers), thereby decreasing voter turnout, most notably among less-educated and younger individuals. In turn, we find suggestive evidence ...

Risk Preference: A View from Psychology

Psychology offers conceptual and analytic tools that can advance the discussion on the nature of risk preference and its measurement in the behavioral sciences. We discuss the revealed and stated preference measurement traditions, which have coexisted in both psychology and economics in the study of risk preferences, and explore issues of temporal stability, convergent validity, and predictive validity ...

The Family Working-Time Model: Towards More Gender Equality in Work and Care

Since the millennium, the labour market participation of women and mothers is increasing across European countries. Several work/care policy measures underlie this evolution. At the same time, the labour market behaviour of fathers, as well as their involvement in care work, is relatively unchanging, meaning that employed mothers are facing an increased burden with respect to gainful employment and ...

On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing

This article analyses the effects of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) on global portfolio flows, differentiating across recipient region of the flows, type of flow and QE rounds. Furthermore, the analysis differentiates between the impact of QE expansionary announcements and the actual market operations. The analysis shows that QE1 resulted in (slight) rebalancing towards the US, while ...

The Impact of Liquidity Risk on the Yield Spread of Green Bonds

This study analyses how liquidity risk affects bonds’ yield spreads after controlling for credit risk, bond-specific characteristics and macroeconomic variables. Using two liquidity estimates, LOT liquidity and the bid-ask spread, we find that, in particular, the LOT liquidity measure has explanatory power for the yield spread of green bonds. Overall, however, the impact of LOT decreases over time, ...

Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress: Evidence from Extreme Bonds Analysis

Early warning systems (EWSs) are widely used to assess a country’s vulnerability to fiscal distress. A fiscal distress episode is identified as a period when government experiences extreme funding difficulties. Most EWSs employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue using extreme bounds analysis, ...

Choosing between Different Time-Varying Volatility Models für Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

The performance of information criteria and tests for residual heteroscedasticity for choosing between different models for time‐varying volatility in the context of structural vector autoregressive analysis is investigated. Although it can be difficult to find the true volatility model with the selection criteria, using them is recommended because they can reduce the mean squared error of impulse ...