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House Price Expectations

Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen, Felix Weinhardt

In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 218 (2024), S. 379–398


This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Felix Weinhardt

Research Associate in the Public Economics Department

Peter Haan

Head of Department in the Public Economics Department

JEL-Classification: D14;R21;R31
Keywords: Housing, house price expectations